With fruit and vegetable receipts predicted to dip between 6% and 10%, total U.S. farm income will drop by 8.1% in 2021, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts.
According to the USDA, farm income is forecast to decrease 8.1%, from 2020 to $111.4 billion in 2021.
The expected decline in 2021 follows a forecast increase of a whopping 45.7% in 2020, according to the USDA.
Direct government payments were a big reason for the bump in farm income in 2020, and the forecast for lower income in 2021 is linked to expectations of reduced government help this year.
“Most of this (income) decline is because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers for the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic compared with 2020,” the USDA said.
The Coronavirus Food Assistance Program provides relief to producers whose operations have been directly affected by COVID-19. Payments in calendar year 2021 for these USDA programs are forecast at $2.5 billion, compared with $23.7 billion in 2020, the USDA said.
Payments from the Paycheck Protection Program administered by the Small Business Administration, are forecast at $2.8 billion in 2021, compared with $5.9 billion in 2020.
Additional COVID-19-related aid to farmers in 2021 is expected to come from the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 signed into law in December 2020. Under that legislation, the total direct payments to farmers and ranchers is forecast at $8 billion in 2021 and are recorded under supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance.
Fruit and vegetable outlook
The USDA said vegetable and melon cash receipts in 2021 are expected to fall $1.2 billion, or 5.7%, to $19.3 billion, mostly because of lower prices.
Meanwhile, the agency said cash receipts for fruits and nuts are expected to fall $3.2 billion, or 9.6%, to $30.3 billion in 2021, as the effects of lower prices should “outweigh a positive quantity effect,” the USDA said.
