My recent Fresh Talk post about the resiliency of exports was a little too glib and simplistic for one West Coast produce exporter.
I concluded my post this way:
“With all the trade friction out there, the value of U.S. exports of fresh fruits and vegetables is steady as a rock through the first eight months of the year. It will take a force bigger than Donald Trump to perturb the power of produce.”
My exporter friend was incredulous. His message was simple: don’t underestimate the damage President Trump can do with his retaliatory-tariff inspiring trade policy.
Here is what he wrote me:
The quote saying it will take something more than the Trump administration to disturb trade is a shocking statement to me.
The Trump directed trade war with China is creating a major impact on trade to China and Hong Kong (which has consistently sent 60% to 70% of all imports into southern China.) The three major crops of USA West Coast (Washington apples, California grapes and citrus) have been and will continue to be severely impacted by the high duties imposed by China. The impact vibrates to other Southeast Asia markets who become overloaded as suppliers push produce to them.
Plus this Trade War impact reaches far beyond our fresh produce industry to the much larger crops of the Midwest.
My largest concern is that once we lose customers to a trade war, it is very hard to get them back. The Europeans are very aggressive and EU may have hidden export incentives that make their product very attractive on price.
I think the Administration thinks we will just turn a light switch off and in and instantly regain customers for our product. That is my biggest worry.
TK: Trump is taking bold gambles with his trade policy, and some of his moves may break the right way. But the people who will suffer the most if he loses are American farmers and exporters.
