It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.
The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.
Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.
“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.
The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.
“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.
Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.
“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.
He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.
“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”
Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.
What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:
- Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
- Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest
Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.
“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”
Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.
“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.
Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.
“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.
What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.
As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.
You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.
Your Next Read:
No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years
