California’s pistachio industry could be headed for one of its smallest crops in years after spring heat disrupted bloom, slashing yield potential across orchards. While production estimates are still evolving, many analysts now believe the 2026 crop could come in well under 1 billion pounds, a sharp drop from last year’s record 1.6 billion-pound harvest.
That smaller crop comes as demand for pistachios remains historically strong, creating the potential for improved prices and profitability for growers who have a crop to sell. And as Terrain Ag shows in a new report, pistachios went from a viral trend to a market mover.
“It’s a really challenging time in the specialty crop world, particularly in permanent plantings,” says Matt Woolf, specialty crop analyst with Terrain Ag. “If you look across almonds, wine grapes and walnuts, it’s been really, really challenging in the last few years. The bright spot in permanent plantings in California agriculture is certainly pistachios.”
Woolf says pistachios continue to outperform many other California tree crops despite rising production costs and some moderation in prices.
Production Has Exploded, But Demand Has Kept Up
The optimism is notable considering just how much the industry has expanded.
According to Woolf, California pistachio production has increased roughly 484% over the past decade, with the crop reaching approximately $1.6 billion in value.
Ordinarily, that type of production growth would pressure prices. Instead, Woolf says demand has continued to absorb the expanding supply.
“We have seen price fluctuations as production increases or as we have an off year,” Woolf says. “But I think one of the factors that’s really driving strong pistachio profitability is demand.”
He says consumption has expanded both domestically and internationally, helped in part by the viral popularity of Dubai chocolate, which features pistachio cream as a key ingredient.
“Part of that, of course, is the Dubai chocolate trend. That’s certainly helped pistachio profitability in the last few years,” says Woolf.
Viral Trend May Be Cooling, But Demand Remains
While online interest in Dubai chocolate has eased from its peak, Woolf says the broader impact on pistachio demand appears to be lasting.
“It’s hard to say,” he says when asked whether the trend has peaked. “If you look at Google search interest, it’s certainly peaked and started to come down a little bit, but it’s by no means gone completely.”
He points out Google searches for the popular trend peaked in March of 2025, but even since then, the demand for pistachios has stayed strong. The popular nut continues to show up in products ranging from coffee drinks and cookies to ice cream, helping sustain consumer demand beyond the original social media craze.
Spring Heat Could Create a Much Smaller Crop
The biggest story for growers this season, however, is weather.
Woolf says unusually warm temperatures during bloom significantly reduced nut set across many orchards.
“We knew it was going to be an off year, but we didn’t know that the heat in March was going to disrupt bloom like we’ve seen,” Woolf says. “Nut clusters are a lot smaller than what they typically are.”
As a result, crop estimates have fallen dramatically.
“The estimates are all over the place,” Woolf says. “But most estimates put it at under a billion. Keep in mind that last year was 1.6 billion. Somewhere maybe in that 700 million- to 800 million-pound range is sort of what we’re looking at at this point.”
Smaller Crop Could Boost Grower Returns
For growers who produce a marketable crop, the tighter supply could translate into stronger prices.
“For those growers that can yield, I think you can expect higher prices, higher profitability for the 2026 crop year,” Woolf says.
Looking beyond this season, Woolf remains optimistic about the industry’s long-term outlook.
“I think pistachios have done a really brilliant job marketing themselves,” he says. “The industry is much more concentrated than the almond industry, for instance, and I think those are going to be long-term tailwinds going beyond the 2026 season as well.”
