Last week, USDA’s National Agriculture Statistics Service announced its objective measurement report for the upcoming walnut crop in California. NASS estimates this year’s production to be up 18% from 2024, with a crop size of about 710,000 tons. NASS says this estimate is based on 365,000 bearing acres, which is down 1% from 2024 acres.
Robert Verloop, executive director and CEO of the California Walnut Commission, says this year’s crop is much more in line with the state’s acreage numbers and expectations of production based on the age of the trees in the ground.
Verloop says about 65% of the crop is the Chandler variety, which is the most in demand.
“We’re actually very enthusiastic about this one,” he says. “This has been an incredible summer for growing trees and plants of any kind. And as a result, the nut crop looks fantastic. It’s about a week early, which is not unusual given that things have been growing along so well.”
While official harvest figures won’t be available until November, Verloop says an important figure to remember is the carryout number, or the amount of the 2024 crop in unsold inventory. He says he expects that number to range between 70,000 to 90,000 tons, which he says is already presold for September and October.
“Essentially, we’re starting with a sold-out position with the new crop coming in, and that will start shipping in the middle of October,” he says.
Export market
Verloop says USDA’s Market Access Program, of which the California Walnut Commission has received $7 million each year, helps the organization grow and expand markets for walnuts. Verloop says the commission has focused $14 million of its efforts on expanding its presence in North Africa.
“Morocco is our first market that we’ve already started working in, and we’re looking at Algeria and Egypt as well,” he says. “We hope to develop programs there.”
Southeast Asia is another area of interest, Verloop says, noting that includes Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries, too.
“We’re doing market research and then really taking a look at the structure of the food distribution,” he says. “Understanding if we need to have programs targeting and educating consumers about the benefits of walnuts.”
He says this also includes building relationships with importers and distributors, as well as retailers in those countries.
“Walnuts are in most of the countries that I’ve mentioned, walnuts are already there,” he says. “It’s just now getting more people to eat more walnuts on a more frequent basis and maybe California walnuts as well.”
Verloop says USDA’s Foreign Ag Service also helps the California Walnut Commission in its efforts to expand the reach of California-grown walnuts.
Challenges
Verloop says while tariffs on exported walnuts is a challenge, as walnut production has grown in the past few years, growers have faced tariffs on inputs, too.
“We’re very careful to watch what the input costs are, because in order to have a thriving industry, we’re going to have to make sure that those costs are recovered and that we’re doing everything in an efficient and effective manner when we’re farming,” he says.
This includes efficient growing practices, integrated pest management, monitoring water use, etc.
“As we continue to work on an efficient system from a grower’s perspective, we need to see profitability,” he says. “And, for many years, the growers have not been profitable.”
Verloop says that while this year is shaping up to be a good one for the state’s walnut industry, it’s important that acreage remain steady to help drive good market conditions. He says some growers will remove older non-productive trees or trees in areas with water availability challenges. And he says he’s seen a slowing down of the number of new acres coming into production.
“Our caution to the industry is to avoid planting significant acreage and to work on refurbishing and replanting acres you may have lost,” he says. “Let’s not increase overall. We got ourselves into this situation because we were overproducing to what the marketplace is. And while we want to be responsive and be able to sell as many walnuts as possible, they have to be at a profitable level, and the way to do that is to control the number of acres that are producing.”
