A new 364-page report identifies drivers behind a forecasted climb in fresh produce packaging over the next few years.
The industry study, “U.S. Fresh Produce Packaging Market 2024-2033,” analyzes the $6.1 billion U.S. market for fresh produce packaging, presenting historical demand data (2013, 2018 and 2023) and forecasts (2028 and 2033) as well as annual data for years 2020-2027, according to a news release.
Demand for fresh produce packaging is forecast to increase 2.4% per year to $7.3 billion in 2028, or 59 billion units, according to a report summary, which says market value gains will be supported by modest growth in unit sales as well as by:
• Rising demand for value-added produce packaging, such as resealable trays and stand-up pouches.
• A continued transition from pillow pouches to higher value plastic trays with lidding and plastic containers for salads and leafy greens.
• Increasing sales of fresh-cut produce — such as prechopped celery or ready-to-eat mixed berries — which are typically sold in tubs, cups or other higher-value containers
Plastic trays, containers outpace major packaging types
Plastic trays with lidding, tubs, cups and two-piece containers are expected to outperform bags and pillow pouches in retail markets due to their strong performance across numerous key applications, including salads, berries and fresh-cut produce. Despite rising concerns over the sustainability of plastic packaging, paper and molded fiber alternatives have struggled to capture significant market share due to plastic’s strong protective abilities, clarity, and capacity to extend shelf life, the release said.
Apple, salad to drive overall demand
Apples and salad are expected to continue outperforming other types of produce throughout the forecast period and combined will account for a majority of absolute gains in unit and value terms through 2028, the release said:
• Unit gains for apple packaging will be aided by the increase in packaged apples as opposed to unpackaged options, while market value will be boosted by the growth of value-added items (such as resealable stand-up pouches and large clamshells) over traditional bags.
• Salad’s market position will be supported by the growing consumer preference for leafy greens and salad mixes over head lettuce. Additionally, a transition to higher-value packaging — such as trays with resealable lidding and modified atmosphere packaging — will boost market value.
Convenience is king
Trends toward healthy eating have spurred increased fresh produce consumption and growth in direct-to-consumer outlets, such as farmer’s markets and roadside stands, however, consumers increasingly seek convenient ways of incorporating fresh fruits and vegetables into their busy schedules, the release said.
Ready-to-eat and fresh-cut options have become a significant portion of the fresh produce market over the past decade, according to the summary. These products are generally packaged in rigid plastic containers, often in single-serving format, to support snacking and on-the-go eating.
Packaging product trends
Demand for fresh produce packaging is projected to increase 2.4% per year to $7.3 billion in 2028; by units, demand will rise 1.3% annually to 59 billion units, according to the study, which noted that despite relatively slow growth in domestic produce output, advances will result from increases in the amount of produce sold in retail packaging. Value gains will benefit from greater use of higher-value packaging types for fresh-cut produce that offer consumer convenience, ease-of-use features (for both store personnel and customers) and improved performance characteristics to keep the contents fresh for longer, the release said.
Rigid products will increase their share of the fresh produce packaging market in both value and unit terms, the summary said:
• Corrugated packaging will remain popular despite RPCs gaining share in bulk applications.
• Plastic containers will benefit from consumer preferences for RTE products and other fresh-cut offerings in clamshells, tubs and other container types.
Sales of flexible packaging products — including bags, pouches and film wrap and lidding — will continue to benefit from greater demand for packaged and fresh-cut fruits and vegetables and more intensive use of higher-value stand-up pouches, the release said. Nonetheless, bags and pouches face strong competition from rigid plastic containers and top-seal trays in areas such as salad mixes, greens and pre-cut produce, mainly for their protective abilities, according to the summary.
Materials competition
Plastic is projected to continue accounting for the majority share of packaging sales as it is the most common option for rigid packaging such as clamshells and other plastic containers; trays and platters; baskets; and flexible packaging such as bags, pouches, wrap and lidding, the release said.
Plastic has maintained its dominance due to performance advantages like its lightweight, moisture resistance, enhanced barrier properties and puncture resistance, according to the summary, which added that source reduction efforts have also favored flexible plastic packaging formats (such as pouches).
The sustainability comparison between plastic and competitive materials like paper and molded fiber for produce packaging is complex, the release said:
• Manufacture of plastic packaging generally involves the production of fewer greenhouse gases, less water and less solid waste compared to paper. Plastic’s superior protective properties also help reduce food waste. However, bags, pouches and other flexible plastic packaging formats are not recyclable in many locations (although an increasing number of plastic packages are made with postconsumer recycled content).
• Paper and molded fiber packaging are positioned as renewable and have good environmental perceptions among consumers. However, both materials face performance issues like moisture resistance and durability. Some folding cartons and paper or molded fiber trays are manufactured with plastic coatings that help with moisture issues but frequently limit their recycling.
Whether paper and molded fiber are generally more sustainable than plastic, many companies are capitalizing on the notion that these materials are more eco-friendly alternatives, the release said. To that end, multiple players are developing new paper and molder-fiber packaging technologies that can stand up to plastic’s performance properties.
Campaigns to improve public awareness of the energy and emissions savings related to plastic will help promote the use of plastic packaging, however, some produce suppliers — especially producers of organic or other specialty types — opt for paper or molded fiber packaging that consumers will perceive as eco-friendly, the summary said.
Pricing and inflation
Through 2028, the average produce packaging price is expected to increase 1.2% per year — hewing closer to historical norms after a high inflationary period — to 12.4 cents per unit, the summary said. Predicted price increases are expected to mainly be supported by:
• More intensive use of better quality materials and recycled content.
• The inclusion of higher quality graphics.
• A continued shift in the product mix to more expensive types of packaging, such as stand-up pouches and RPCs.
Related link: Access the full “U.S. Fresh Produce Packaging Market 2024-2033" report via Business and Markets
