It’s been a wet growing season leading up to this year’s start of Florida’s tomato harvest. While such conditions often bring a bit of pest pressure, it’s looking like a medium-to-slightly-above-medium crop, says Bob Spencer, president of West Coast Tomato.
Spencer, who talked with The Packer just over a week before harvest, says the industry will have a better idea of volume closer to the start of the season.
“We’re excited,” he says. “We’re getting ready to go again, to start up in 10 to 12 days. It’s like the football coach at the beginning of the season; you haven’t lost a game yet, so everybody loves you. So, we’re optimistic and ready to get started.”
For farms already harvesting, Spencer says the fruit hasn’t sized up as much as expected, but he foresees better sizing by the time West Coast Tomato gets started. However, he adds that Mother Nature always brings a little uncertainty.
“We’re at the point now where we expect them to size up over the next 10 to 12 days and hopefully that happens, but you never know,” Spencer says.
Antidumping Duties Stabilization
A key development leading into this season has been the termination of the U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement; Spencer says he’s seen the market operating the way it was supposed to with the 17% duty on imported Mexican tomatoes.
“We’re not seeing as much dumping of product into the United States from Mexico as we’ve seen for the last 30 years,” Spencer says.
Robert Guenther, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange, says that with a year of data, the industry has seen stabilization in the domestic industry and increased consumers’ access to U.S.-grown tomatoes.
“What we know is imports fell almost 3% from 2024, and Mexican acreage is down 9% since the duties,” Guenther says. “So, in fact, the antidumping duty is doing exactly what it is intended to do.”
Managing Weather Volatility and Rising Demand
Spencer says the market has had ebbs and flows, including a hard freeze last February — the worst it’s been in roughly 15 years. He says that hurt spring demand because of a short supply.
Guenther agrees, noting that weather events, pest and disease challenges and labor availability have impacted U.S. and Florida production, leading to swings in the marketplace. He says those fluctuations are not because of the antidumping duty.
“For the first six months of the antidumping duty being in place, prices and volumes were stable,” he says.
Spencer says he’s noticed more widespread demand for Florida tomatoes with the lifting of the Tomato Suspension Agreement and those additional duties on imported tomatoes.
“Now people who may not have ordered from us in the past are starting to look at us in light of the duty situation,” he says.
Guenther notes, “Buyers have told us they value reliable, food-safe supply during the Florida season, and we are hearing more interest in domestic commitments.”
He says the industry will see by midwinter if that turns to firm volume, depending on whether prices stay stable enough for buyers to plan.
This growing interest has Spencer optimistic about the Florida tomato industry. He emphasizes that Florida-grown tomatoes are highly regulated, but that is a benefit of American-grown produce. While those regulations protect consumers and workers and add to the cost, that’s part of the value Florida-grown tomatoes offer.
“[The regulations] may add cost to our production that some of our competitors don’t have, but it’s worth it so the consumer can know when they’re buying American produce, the workers are treated fairly and safely and the product is safe,” Spencer says.
Guenther says the advantage of Florida-grown tomatoes is availability in the winter when much of the country doesn’t have local production. He adds that the effort required to produce those tomatoes is often overlooked.
“Growers have recovered from hurricanes, absorbed rising input and labor costs and kept food safety standards among the strictest in produce,” he says. “The story behind the price at the grocery shelf deserves much more attention than it gets these days, including who bears the cost when imported tomatoes are sold below the cost of production.”
Long-Term Investment and the USMCA Joint Review
Spencer says he’s optimistic the Florida tomato industry will keep benefiting from the end of the Tomato Suspension Agreement.
“We’re just hoping that what we have set in place now will limit the amount of unfair trading practices from Mexico,” he says.
Guenther says this market change has helped growers predict returns, making them more likely to reinvest in their operations.
“For years, import prices that undercut the cost of growing tomatoes in Florida made it hard to justify new capital for packinghouses, protected culture, automation or new acreage,” he says.
“A duty order that is enforced gives growers a more stable price floor for planning,” he adds. “Florida has a lot to build on, including its winter production window, its food safety record and an active research portfolio. Stability in trade, plus sound federal and state policy on labor and risk management, is what lets those advantages turn into investment.”
Guenther says the industry’s top priorities include the farm bill, disaster aid, trade enforcement and labor and regulatory challenges. A top priority is also the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
“The joint review is the moment when the rules for North American produce trade get reset, and Florida growers want a seat at that table,” he says. “Our position is simple. The antidumping order is a remedy for documented unfair pricing, and it is not a bargaining chip to be traded for access to another commodity.”
