2021 California avocado crop will be smaller but within average range

The California avocado crop will be smaller this year, but promotable volume will arrive by late April, according to California Avocado Commission projections.

The commission’s projection for the state’s output for fiscal 2020-21, which runs from November through October, is 292 million pounds, according to Jan DeLyser, vice president of marketing. 

The commission said about 280 million pounds will be the hass variety, with 9 million pounds for the lamb variety, 2 million pounds for GEM and 1 million for “other” varieties.

“This is in the range of an ‘average’ crop and is about 8% smaller than CAC’s preliminary handler forecast,” she said. 

That earlier forecast of 317 million pounds for 2020-21 was about 15% smaller than the 2019-20 crop, which topped 360 million pounds.

“Compared to many parts of the country California has had a very mild fall/winter, but there were some weather events including wind that impacted the very early season harvest,” DeLyser said. 

“That shortfall seems to be behind us, and we are expecting promotable volume starting in late April, with a range of sizes and excellent quality for the rest of the season.”

Based on projections by handlers, top shipping months are expected from May through July, with most of the crop marketed from April through October.
The volume of California organic avocados has increased over time, DeLyser said. In fiscal 2019-20 organic avocados represented 8.7% of the crop, up from 6.7% in the 2015-16 crop year.

Marketing plan

DeLyser said that COVID-19 continues to be a top concern for consumers but some easing appears to be occurring.

With vaccinations beginning and case rates starting to fall in some states, DeLyser said consumers getting out and about more.

“While much or our advertising plans focuses on reaching avocado shoppers at home, we are adding some out-of-home and in-car audio advertising back to our media mix,” she said.

For 2021, DeLyser said the California Avocado Commission is keeping communications fresh with new advertising executions of its “the best avocados have California in them” campaign. 

“We are connecting with targeted consumers via an array of media and social media channels,” she said. 

“We also will work with brand advocates including registered dietitians, chefs and other influencers. Our online merchandise store, Shop.CaliforniaAvocado.com, is active and helping to maintain California avocado awareness leading up to and throughout the season.”

In terms of trade shows and industry events for 2021, DeLyser said pandemic health regulations are guiding the commission’s  plans. 

“CAC is continuing to monitor the situation and we are continuing to participate in some virtual trade events,” she said. “In-person participation is on hold until health departments and our management team determine it is safe to do so.”

Retail connection

A customized approach to retail promotion programs is one of the cornerstones of California avocado marketing efforts, DeLyser said. In addition to offering merchandising materials such as display bins, the commission works with retailers to build and execute their own individualized marketing support plan.

“Our team continues to keep in contact with key accounts via conference calls and video chats,” she said.

Foodservice demand for avocados may continue to be blunted by restrictions on inside dining in restaurants well into 2021, she said.

However, for many quick-service restaurant chains with drive-through, DeLyser said take-out and delivery service demand has continued to be strong for avocado menu items. 

“There is considerable interest from foodservice partners in having California avocados on their menus or as part of limited-time offers this season,” she said.