After five years of inflation and ongoing economic uncertainty, produce remains a staple across income levels. What is changing is how households define value, where they shop and which items make it into the cart.
During Circana and FMI’s webinar, “Fresh Perspectives: How Income Shapes Today’s Fresh Food Behaviors,” presenters Jonna Parker, principal of Circana, and Kelly Krumholz, perimeter client insights consultant for Circana, outlined a retail environment where 2025 food and beverage sales topped $1.7 trillion, yet shoppers grew increasingly strategic in the fourth quarter. Unit volume dipped late in the year, price increases moderated and consumers showed signs of fatigue.
For produce, the data reveals both resilience and opportunity.
Produce Growth with Minimal Inflation
Produce posted 2% in pound growth in 2025 while average price per pound rose only about 1%. Over a five-year span, produce has seen little true same-item inflation compared to center-store categories.
Yet perception tells a different story, Parker notes. In January 2026, 80% of shoppers believed food and beverage prices were higher than a year ago. Fruits and vegetables were frequently cited in media coverage, even though fresh pricing did not drive the bulk of inflation.
The disconnect underscores produce’s ubiquity, she says. Fruits and vegetables are purchased frequently by most households, and that visibility amplifies price sensitivity.
Circana’s price decomposition analysis shows that fresh price increases were largely driven by product mix rather than true item-to-item price hikes. Shoppers are opting for different items or quantities, which shifts the average price paid.
In other words, the produce department is not broadly inflating. Shoppers are making different choices.
Income Perception Matters More Than Income Level
FMI research adds nuance by examining how consumers feel about their financial situation rather than relying solely on income brackets.
Among shoppers who describe themselves as “comfortable” or “secure,” freshness is the top attribute in produce purchasing decisions. Price does not emerge as the primary driver until households describe themselves as “struggling.”
Even at higher income levels, concern is widespread. Nearly half of households earning $100,000 still say they must make ends meet, and 77% of high-income shoppers think grocery costs are too high.
Economic anxiety is not confined to one segment. That shared concern shapes produce behavior across the spectrum, the data shows.
Struggling Households Fuel Produce Growth
Circana analyzed millennial and Gen X family households at both the top and bottom ends of the income spectrum using Experian Mosaic segments. While affluent households dedicate a higher share of their basket to fresh at 31%, struggling households are increasing their fresh spending at a faster rate.
Struggling families contributed 19% of fresh dollar growth and 28% of unit growth in 2025, outpacing affluent households in growth contribution.
Part of this shift reflects reduced foodservice spending among lower-income consumers. With fewer meals eaten away from home, more occasions move back into the kitchen.
In produce, that translates into intentional choices designed to stretch budgets.
Struggling households are leaning into items that deliver satiety and flexibility. Fresh grapes, melons, berries and potatoes are strong performers. These items can serve as snacks, sides or meal components and can be portioned across multiple family members.
Affluent households are more likely to purchase fresh berries and avocados and maintain a broader mix of produce. However, even among higher-income shoppers, some salad-related items showed slower growth, suggesting certain meal occasions are shifting outside retail.
Variety Alone Is Not the Answer
Produce assortment expansion does not automatically translate into volume gains.
Fresh apples grew nearly $200 million in dollar sales in 2025 but were flat in pounds. The proliferation of varieties boosted dollars without increasing overall consumption.
Contrast that with oranges, which posted nearly 14% pound growth. Targeted marketing and strong consumer demand generation appear to have lifted category performance.
Channel Shifts Blur the Lines
Both affluent and struggling families are rewarding mass supercenters, club stores and online ordering for fresh purchases. Digital engagement is not limited to higher-income shoppers.
While struggling households shop fewer retailers overall, the mix of channels overlaps more than many retailers assume.
At the same time, traditional grocery has lost nearly six share points over four years within retail food and beverage. Holding and growing fresh share requires clear differentiation.
Competing Beyond the Produce Aisle
Retail is also competing with foodservice for fresh occasions. Circana’s data shows protein categories winning dollars back from foodservice, but produce does not automatically benefit from that shift.
As some shoppers seek “escape” occasions outside the home, others replicate restaurant experiences in their kitchens. Produce can play a role in both scenarios.
With fewer households hosting large holiday gatherings in 2025, retailers must think carefully about how to position produce for smaller, more strategic occasions.
The Opportunity for 2026
The data shows produce’s limited inflation, broad appeal and versatility position it well in a K-shaped economy.
Entry-level price points, visible value messaging and occasion-based merchandising can help retain price-sensitive shoppers. At the same time, premium and discovery-driven items can serve affluent households seeking variety and experience.
The income divide is real, but the data suggests that produce can bridge it. Shoppers across income levels are still choosing fresh. The challenge is meeting their motivations with precision.
