A new market research tool shows that produce is among the least vulnerable retail categories when foodservice sales accelerate as the COIVD-19 pandemic eases.
Chicago-based data company Numerator has launched a Grocery Vulnerability Index to guide CPG brands and retailers on the impact that increased out-of-home dining has on selected grocery categories, as restaurants add capacity and COVID-19 vaccinations become widely available, according to a news release.
The index measures the likelihood that a change in quick service restaurant spending correlates to a change in spending on a given grocery category.
“As COVID restrictions begin to relax and vaccinations become widely used, retailers and brands need to understand what the changes mean for their business,” Eric Belcher, CEO of Numerator said in the release. “Numerator data helps retailers and brands anticipate and predict the impact of re-emerging behaviors using advanced analytics.” Categories with the highest index scores (>125) are most likely to be negatively affected when consumers return to pre-COVID dining behaviors (methodology below)
The index found meat is 50% more likely than the average grocery category to experience a decrease in grocery sales as QSR/restaurants reopen and consumers replace their home-cooked meals.
Grocery categories considered not vulnerable to increased restaurant spend, the release said, are Breakfast (-56%), Canned Foods (-37%), Produce (-33%), and Alcohol (-33%), according to the release.
