Fresh produce is navigating a complex market defined by economic headwinds, shifting shopping behaviors and lingering consumer anxiety over food safety.
During Circana’s Nov. 12 webinar, “Looking Ahead to 2030: Fresh Perspectives on the Retail & Consumer Trends Shaping the Decade So Far,” industry leaders Jonna Parker, vice president of Circana’s Fresh Foods Group; David Haaf, vice president of fresh foods for FMI; and Kelly Krumholz, client insights director for Circana, unpacked how retailers and suppliers can adapt to today’s “highly adaptable and increasingly intentional” shopper.
Lingering Shadow of Food Safety Recalls
Unlike past recalls that quickly faded from consumer memory, the July 15 viral news surrounding a cyclospora outbreak has created a prolonged demand disruption across the produce department. Three months after the news broke, total perishables are still being pulled down in unit sales and trip frequency largely due to weakness in produce.
While leafy greens and value-added salads — which were previously top-selling e-commerce items — remain down double digits year over year, the concern has cast a shadow over more than 40 fresh produce subcategories. In an October Circana survey, 53% of primary U.S. shoppers reported they were still concerned about fresh food safety, naming vegetables as their top area of concern.
“For so long in produce, demand was a given,” Parker says. “But now we really do need to not just reassure people that it’s safe. We’re also finding that a lot of people just need to be reminded about some of the benefits of buying different things in fresh produce.”
Parker emphasizes that deep price slashing is not the cure-all. Promotions offering 50-cent or $1 salads merely gave discounts to the 34% of shoppers who never stopped buying, effectively training them that the “only reason to buy salads and leafy greens was because it was cheaper than other alternatives,” she says. Instead, retailers must target the 33% of shoppers who reduced their purchases but plan to return, while addressing the one-third of consumers asking for clearer communication around safety practices, sourcing and recalls.
Wellness, GLP-1s and the Rise of ‘Versatile’ Produce
Despite inflation fatigue and elevated gas prices — which 61% of consumers cited as a major concern — shoppers are not simply racing to the bottom for the cheapest calories. Instead, health and wellness are driving significant demand across all age groups, particularly as roughly 30% of U.S. households are actively using a GLP-1 weight-loss medication and another 37% are considering it or have used one in the past.
With more than half of households taking measures to curb their appetites, consumers are treating food as medicine and prioritizing functional benefits, fiber and protein. Krumholz says younger generations are actively seeking out nutrient-dense options like red berries for their health properties.
Furthermore, because fresh items are perishable, shoppers are rewarding produce items that offer multi-use versatility.
“All of a sudden you really need to not just think about an apple as an apple or a sweetpotato as a sweetpotato,” Parker says.
This shift has created unexpected banner years for premium-priced produce:
- Kiwis — Despite being a higher-priced fruit, kiwis achieved double-digit pound growth, driven purely by younger consumers who are eating kiwis for their magnesium and other positive properties.
- Avocados — Continued to see strong incremental growth alongside kiwis.
- Sweetpotatoes — Evolved beyond a traditional side dish into a primary meal carrier, acting as a substitute for bread in sandwiches.
- Morning staples — Ready-to-eat fruits like bananas and apples are thriving by serving dual roles as grab-and-go snacks or toppings for waffles and French toast.
Convenience, E-Commerce and the Total Meal Solution
How and where consumers buy produce is also shifting rapidly. Traditional supermarkets now capture only 42% of fresh food dollars (down from 60% a decade ago), losing ground to club stores, mass merchandisers, value grocers and natural food retailers like Sprouts and Whole Foods that trade heavily on produce quality and claims. Meanwhile, fresh e-commerce is surging at a 17% growth rate, with online sales now accounting for nearly 12% of all meat and produce dollars.
However, digital merchandising still lags behind consumer intent. Parker notes that shoppers searching online for staples often get served shelf-stable CPG versions instead of fresh produce, and retailers are missing opportunities for suggestive selling. As artificial intelligence increasingly shapes meal planning — with nearly two-thirds of shoppers wanting AI to help plan their holiday menus — suppliers must ensure product attributes and sustainability stories are digitally searchable.
In physical stores, time-pressed shoppers who spend less than 30 minutes preparing weeknight dinners are looking for frictionless meal solutions rather than disconnected ingredients. Haaf urges retailers to break down traditional perimeter silos by merchandising fresh-cut vegetables, stir-fry kits and bagged salads right alongside deli meats and bakery rolls at the front of the store.
“Shoppers are not moving away from fresh,” Haaf says, noting that 41% of total store dollars still come from fresh departments. “Organizations that translate these shifts, keep things simpler, more flexible and more personalized are going to win at fresh and going to win the total solution.”
