ORLANDO — Fresh produce and floral executives gathered at the International Fresh Produce Association’s (IFPA) Global Fresh Produce & Floral Show expo in Orlando, Fla., Oct. 14, to examine how rising living costs, changing retail channels and shifting consumer preferences are redefining shopper buying habits across the supermarket landscape.
During a breakout session titled “What Shoppers Will Purchase Next in Produce & Floral,” Rachel Blake, global insights manager for IFPA, and Jonna Parker, vice president and team lead for Circana, broke down key findings from consumer tracking data and register panel insights, outlining the market headwinds, shifting trust and generational spending habits defining the aisle.
Navigating Headwinds and Value Optimization
Opening the session, Parker addressed the economic realities facing today’s shoppers. Elevated costs of living continue to pressure consumer wallets across retail.
“Driven primarily by consumer packaged goods, since 2020, the average American household is paying 37% more for a food item than they did a few years ago,” Parker says.
However, she points out that value isn’t simply a matter of the lowest price per pound. In an “experiential economy,” consumers are actively seeking quality, flavor and convenience, making value optimization personal.
Key market drivers shaping consumer choices include:
- Speed at Dinner: The average dinner prep time in the U.S. continues to shrink, with households needing meals on the table in under 15 minutes. Produce that offers minimal prep fits directly into this need.
- Health and Wellness Shifts: With approximately one-third of U.S. households having someone on or considering a GLP-1 medication, eating patterns are shifting toward smaller, snackable occasions rather than traditional diet plans.
- Channel Diversification: Traditional supermarket channels have seen a five-point market share loss in fresh produce since 2022. Retailers like Walmart and Aldi, alongside club stores, are capturing a larger share — particularly among younger shoppers.
- E-Commerce Growth: E-commerce now accounts for 10% of all U.S. produce sales, driven by pickup and delivery services like Walmart Plus and Instacart.
Disruptions and the Foodservice Landscape
Looking across the broader food and beverage sector, total retail and foodservice spend reached $1.8 billion for the 52 weeks ending in mid-2026, Parker says. While retail volume has faced pressure, foodservice has remained resilient, growing at around 3% to 3.9% in recent quarters as operators focus on value bundling and creating “third space” experiences for consumers.
Within retail produce, sales encountered significant headwinds following food safety headlines in mid-July regarding cyclospora. Parker notes that 83% of primary household shoppers surveyed in August reported hearing about fresh food recalls and adjusting their shopping behavior accordingly, impacting category-wide dollar and volume metrics through late summer.
Despite broader volatility, specific commodity groups demonstrated strong performance:
- Vegetables: Potatoes, onions, cucumbers and fresh tomatoes led sales. Potatoes and onions stood out as category heroes, driven by consumer perception of versatility and value.
- Fruit: Fresh berries maintained the top spot in absolute dollar sales, while grapes emerged as a popular, desktop-friendly snacking alternative.
- Floral: The floral department reached $10.5 billion in sales, continuing to grow unit sales as consumers seek affordable everyday splurges and experiential store connections.
The Four Signals: Trust and Generational Shifts
Blake details insights from the IFPA Consumer Tracker, examining the four core signals driving shopper decisions:
- What consumers want
- What stops them from buying
- Who they believe
- How often they buy
While industry expectations often align well with what consumers want (freshness, quality and value) and what stops them (cost and short shelf-life), Blake says the industry frequently misreads shopper trust and buying frequency.
“Trust is what holds a shopper when something else goes wrong, and the cohort growing faster with us has the weakest claim on us,” Blake says.
Generationally, older shoppers set the highest bar for quality. 90% of Baby Boomers consider produce freshness a major factor in where they shop, compared to 64% of Gen Z. However, Gen Z over-indexes in produce spending relative to their overall grocery budget, despite holding the lowest baseline trust in the industry — only 16% of Gen Z respondents view the fresh produce industry as trustworthy, compared to 32% of Gen X.
Information channels are also shifting dramatically across age cohorts. While dietitians and physicians remain highly trusted across all generations, Gen Z relies heavily on social media platforms like TikTok (39%) for food and nutrition information, creating a fragmented landscape where news of disruptions spreads rapidly. Conversely, in the floral department, under-45 shoppers and Gen Z are building routine, monthly self-care shopping habits far faster than Boomers (where only 8% shop floral routinely), signaling a prime opportunity for cross-department growth.
Building Habits Before the Next Disruption
To insulate the fresh produce and floral sectors against future market disruptions — whether from weather, policy shifts or safety concerns — Blake suggests produce leaders focus on three core actions:
- Master the Basics: Deliver consistently on freshness, selection and value, recognizing standards rise with age.
- Proactively Build Trust: Establish clear brand values and direct consumer communication before a crisis hits, rather than attempting to build trust during a disruption.
- Cross-Leverage Department Habits: Capitalize on younger consumers’ existing monthly floral shopping rhythms by actively integrating fresh produce into those same store visits.
Both speakers remind attendees that understanding generational nuances and intentionally designing products for modern eating habits will be essential for sustained growth in late 2026 and beyond.
