Forecast: Mexican tomato output to increase slightly

Drought conditions in Mexico are a concern, but a new report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service projects a slight increase in Mexican tomato output for the 2021-22 marketing season.

The report said tomato production in Mexico is forecast to recover slightly from last year, on more stable weather and sufficient rainfall levels in Sinaloa, the top producing state. 

Tomatoes are the most widely produced vegetable in Mexico, and the report said roma tomatoes are the main variety produced, followed by round tomatoes and cherry tomatoes. Producers continue to increase the cultivation of specialty tomatoes, the report said, such as cherry and grape tomatoes, based on increased prices and demand from the U.S.

“The reopening of the restaurant and hotel industry in the United States and Mexico, the certainty provided to producers by the newly renegotiated U.S.- Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement, and good export prices has encouraged more tomato planting,” the report said.

Tomato production under protected agriculture systems continues to grow as it provides for higher yields and quality, the report said.

While the USDA report said there is no official forecast for tomato production in crop year 2022, USDA estimates point to production of 3.32 million metric tons, assuming favorable weather conditions.
The USDA production estimate for Mexican tomato crop year 2021 is 3.30 million metric tons, up 2% from the previous crop year.

“Much of the country has experienced some level of drought conditions since September 2020. While dams in Sinaloa are currently at 10% capacity, levels are expected to recover upon the onset of rainy season in July,” the report said.