Food inflation will persist, many believe

Food inflation has been bad, but is the worst of it over?

That's the question I asked the LinkedIn Fresh Produce Industry Discussion Group.

The results so far: 88% of a limited number of industry leaders who took the poll so far believe the worst of food inflation is still to come.

That's not a bad hunch.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the food index of consumer prices increased 1.1% in July, representing the seventh consecutive monthly increase of 0.9% or more.

The food at home index rose 1.3% in July, as all six major grocery store food group indexes increased, according to the BLS.

Shockingly, the food at home (grocery) index rose 13.1% over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 1979.

Retail prices for fruits and vegetables rose more than 9% over the past year, according to the BLS numbers.

The rise in grocery prices almost made it seem that restaurant prices were a bargain.

The BLS said the index for food away from home rose 7.6% over the last year. The index for full-service meals rose 8.9% over the last 12 months, and the index for limited-service meals rose 7.2% over the last year.

Where do we stand today in regard to food inflation?

Here are some charts showing the direction of fruit and vegetable prices since early 2020.

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One bright note is that transportation rates have been falling in recent weeks. See the chart below.