Rabobank BBQ Index rates last four years of food inflation as hottest since 1978
Celebrating freedom with a barbeque event will be costlier this year, a new economic analysis from Rabobank shows.
The 2023 Rabobank BBQ Index shows that a 10-person barbecue will cost nearly $100 this year, according to a news release. In fact, food items listed on the barbecue menu have jumped 31% since 2018, according to Rabobank.
The Russia-Ukraine war, severe drought, higher wages and rising costs of farm inputs, transportation and energy have combined to fuel broad-based inflation throughout the supply chain, Rabobank analysts said.
Counting the cost
The 2023 Rabobank BBQ Index, which measures the cost of staple ingredients for a 10-person barbecue, shows that it will cost $97 to host a cookout on Independence Day this year, up from $73 in 2018.
Food prices have shot up 31% in the last four years, the biggest four-year gain since the late 1970s oil crisis, according to Rabobank.
Here are price increases over the last four years, according to Rabobank:
- Soda: 53%.
- White bread: 51%.
- Potato chips: 46%.
- Chicken: 37%.
- Lettuce: 29%.
- Ground beef: 25%.
- Beer: 22%.
Despite the elevated food costs, Rabobank analysts said many consumers — particularly those under 40 — are now prioritizing experiences over goods and are willing to splurge for a special occasion.
“Consumers have taken some heavy punches but they’re still standing,” Tom Bailey, senior consumer foods analyst at Rabobank, said in the report. “They’re being shrewd in areas that don’t enrich experiences, while giving in to the urge to splurge where it matters most. With that mindset, look for spending to heat up this summer on quality meats and drinks — the recipe for a memorable barbecue.”
The trend to value “experience over things” was emerging before COVID-19, but Rabobank analysts said the shift has accelerated, especially for millennials and Generation Z. For baby boomers, spending on travel and food has increased, in part thanks to an 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment to their Social Security benefits this year, according to Rabobank.
A healthy labor market is also keeping consumers willing to spend their money. The May jobs report showed that unemployment sits at 3.7%, down from its pandemic peak of 14.7% just three years ago, Rabobank economists said.
“Steady work makes it easier to justify increased spending when budgets are tight,” Bailey said in the report. “Rather than trading down to soften the blow of stubbornly high inflation, we may see consumers trading up to more premium products.”
The Rabobank BBQ Index, according to the report, assumes an average American barbecue event on the Fourth of July with 10 adults, with each consuming the same amount of food and beverages.
The index assumes each person will consume one cheeseburger with lettuce and tomato, one chicken sandwich with lettuce, tomato and a slice of cheese, two handfuls of chips, a beer, a soda and a few scoops of ice cream.
