(UPDATED, Aug. 26 )Predicting nearly the same apple production as the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Apple Association estimates the 2020 crop at 253.31 million 42-pound cartons.
Growers reported higher volume of varieties favored by consumers but less production of red delicious and golden delicious apples. The estimate was released Aug. 21 at the U.S. Apple Association’s 125th Annual Crop and Outlook Marketing Conference, a virtual event this year.
Growers said strong demand for apples during the COVID-19 pandemic is one reason for optimism.
“We are excited about this because shipments are up 24% since June 1; we are seeing a brisk summer of apple consumption,” said Mike Preacher, director of marketing for Yakima, Wash.-based Domex Superfresh Growers. “We expect this demand to continue through season, because consumers recognize the convenience and value of apples, especially during these challenging times.”
The USDA’s estimate, released Aug. 12, is 253.57 million cartons, 3% less than the 2019 crop and 2% less than the five-year average.
Washington first
Washington growers are divided on the actual amount of fruit on the tree, the association reported, but the USDA’s August fresh and processed forecast was in the middle of the range and was left unchanged at 176.19 million 42-pound cartons, down 3% from last year and up 6% from the five-year average.
However, growers had strong feelings that the fresh market volume would be lower than last season and that packers would be more selective this year. Washington growers said that the amount of fresh-packed fruit will likely be lower than last year’s 134 million 40-pound cartons with 125-130 million cartons mentioned by several.
Apple harvest is in full swing in the Pacific Northwest, Preacher said Aug. 25.
“Our industry is currently picking organic and non-organic gala and Honeycrisp apples, and other varieties will quickly follow,” he said. In general, Preacher said the industry expects the crop to be a few percentage points shorter than last year. Some areas are reporting lighter sets, which could mean a lighter-than-officially projected crop.
“Either way, Washington state will have a good supply of apples to promote,” he said.
Growers predicted the California crop at 6.43 million cartons, unchanged from the USDA estimate, down 11% from last year and off 9% from the five-year average. The USDA’s Oregon forecast of 4.29 million cartons was high, some growers said. The association predicts 3.89 million cartons, off 9% from the USDA crop estimate but up 9% from last year and unchanged from the five-year average.
East and Midwest outlook
In the East, growers reported spring frosts in New York’s Hudson Valley and parts of Pennsylvania and Virginia reduced the bloom on many varieties.
The association’s New York crop estimate is 32 million cartons, 3.3% higher than the USDA average, 2% higher than the 2019 crop and 1% above the five-year average.
As of Aug. 25, growers in the lower Hudson Valley were through their harvest of Wildfire Gala, Premier Honeycrisp and gingergold, said Kaari Stannard, president and CEO of Glenmont, N.Y.-based New York Apple Sales. Gala harvest starts at the end of August or early September. High-color Honeycrisp will start in early September and regular strain Honeycrisp will start by about Sept. 10. The upper Hudson Valley harvest timing will follow three to five days after the lower valley, she said.
Western New York apple harvest is expected to start one to three days sooner than a year ago based on degree days, Stannard said. Gingergold and Premier Honeycrisp are seven to 10 days from first pick.
“Fruit size in the early-season varieties will be down one size count due to the season-long drought,” she said. “There have been rain events in August but the amounts received have varied from farm to farm.”
Stannard said the Champlain Valley is on track for a good crop and expecting smaller sizing due to drought. The timing of harvest will be seven to 10 days later than western New York.
Timing of the New York crop is normal to a few days early, according to the association estimate.
The Pennsylvania crop estimate from the association is 8.5 million cartons, off 15% from the USDA estimate, 30% below the 2019 crop and 29% lower than the five-year average. Pennsylvania growers reported timing on early varieties is seven to 10 days later than 2019.
The association’s Virgina crop estimate is 3.8 million cartons, virtually unchanged from the USDA’s estimate, down 16% from a year ago and off 20% from the five-year average.
Harvest timing is running approximately seven days later than normal in Virgina, growers said.
In Michigan, the association’s estimate of 22.5 million cartons was 2.7% above the USDA’s estimate, unchanged from a year ago and 8% below the five-year average.
Don Armock, president of Riveridge Produce Marketing Inc., Sparta, Mich., said the Michigan apple crop overall is approximately the same size as last year although the varietal makeup is different in a “positive” way.
“We have a potential record crop of Honeycrisp,” he said. “Certainly it is the largest crop to-date on the tree, so actual volumes will be dependent on packouts.”
Larger crops of gala and fuji are expected, Armock said, and red delicious and golden delicious crops are reduced.
In general, fruit is very clean with even maturity on the tree due to a rapid bloom period.
The Michigan harvest will be slightly later due to a later bloom period, and the southwest crop will be sharply reduced because of frost damage, Armock said.
“We are all focused on keeping our work force safe and comfortable as we live in fear of COVID 19 outbreaks within our harvest crews and packing force,” he said.
Don Roper, vice president sales and marketing, Elgin, Minn.-based Honeybear Brands, which has orchards in Washington and the Midewest, said in general the crop size from both regions appears similar to the 2019 crop, with drought and hot weather holding back sizing for some orchards.
2020 U.S. Apple Production (Million 42-pound cartons) and change from 2019
- New York: 32, +2%;
- Pennsylvania: 8.5, -30%;
- Virginia: 3.8, -16%;
- Michigan: 22.5, 0%;
- Washington: 176.1, -3%;
- California: 6.43, -11%;
- Oregon: 3.89, +9%;
- Total: 253.3, -3%
Source U.S. Apple Association
New York Kaari Stannard receives The Packer’s apple award
