Food inflation will decline further in 2025, according to the latest Food Price Outlook from the USDA’s Economic Research Service report.
Using data through November, the USDA said 2024 prices for all food are now predicted to increase by 2.3%, with a prediction interval of 2.2% to 2.3%.
Grocery (food at home) food prices in 2024 are predicted to increase by 1.2%, with a prediction interval of 1.1% to 1.3%, according to the USDA.
Restaurant (food away from home) prices are predicted to increase by 4.1% in 2024, with a prediction interval of 4% to 4.2%, the USDA said.
In 2025, overall food prices are anticipated to rise at a slower pace than the historical average rate of growth, the USDA said. In 2025, the USDA said prices for all food are predicted to increase by 1.9%, with a prediction interval of -1.2% to 5.2%.
Grocery food prices are predicted to increase by 0.8% in 2025, with a prediction interval of -3.7% to 5.8%. The USDA said restaurant prices are predicted to increase by 3.5% in 2025, with a prediction interval of 1.8% to 5.3%.
Fruit and vegetable spike
The USDA said farm-level fruits and vegetables experienced large price increases in November 2024. Farm-level fruit prices rose by 21.8% in November and were 11% higher than in November 2023, according to the report.
Prices for farm-level vegetables increased by 33.2% in November and prices were 34.3% higher than last year, the USDA said.
“Although prices for these categories were higher year-over-year compared with November 2023, prices are expected to fall or grow slowly on average in 2024, due in part to lower input costs and higher production for some products,” the USDA said.
Prices for farm-level fruits are predicted to decrease by 1.9% in 2024, with a prediction interval of -3.1% to -0.7%, the report said. Prices for farm-level vegetables are predicted to increase by 0.5% in 2024, with a prediction interval of -1.7% to 3.4%.
All-food grocery food inflation rates:
- 2020 — 3.5%.
- 2021 — 3.9%.
- 2022 — 11.4%.
- 2023 — 5%.
- 2024 (forecast) — 1.2%.
- 2025 (forecast) — 0.8%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and USDA
