DALLAS — Kam Quarles, CEO of the National Potato Council, kicked off a session at Potato Expo 2026 on international openings for U.S. potatoes, stating that the trade situation in the U.S. is a critical part of the potato industry, though it’s not without its opportunities and challenges.
Quarles says challenges include the impact of tariffs on growers’ fertilizer, pesticide, new or renovated storage facilities, equipment from overseas and more.
“The opportunities would come in being able to decrease some of the friction for our exports, either in processed potatoes, primarily when you’re thinking of tariffs, nontariff barriers into some of our key export markets or possibly gaining new export markets,” he says.
Strategy of Friction and Leverage
Matt Lantz, senior vice president of global access with global trade consulting firm Bryant Christie, joined Quarles. Lantz says he did some quick numbers to calculate the benefits of some of the expanded markets for potatoes. He estimated that with this “back of the envelope” trade runs, U.S. exports of fresh potatoes to Mexico have increased 162% since opening the market, which went from $51 million to $134 million annually.
“We often say any potato outside the market in the U.S. is a good potato,” Lantz says. “So, that’s left the U.S. to another market, and that was hard to achieve over 20 years, and it was a nice conservative partner.”
Fry exports to Mexico, too, have increased by 130% to become a $319 million fry market.
Though isn’t open for fresh potatoes, Japan has been open for chipping potatoes for 20 years. While there’s only two factories in Japan, it’s been a $20 million to $25 million market. Lantz says his estimations show that the market is up 65% through September.
“This is why Japan is such a priority for us; opening the fresh market for Japan could be Mexico revisited, if not more,” he says. “It’s a very high-end market, and we think it’s a new $150 million market for fresh produce, in addition to chip produce.”
U.S. fry exports to Japan hit $422 million last year and are up 37% over six years ago, Lantz says, noting that 2019 figures are a more normal year to set a baseline.
“You would think we’ve maxed out Japan, and in six years we’ve grown it by 37%,” he says. “It’s going to be a half-billion-dollar market in the next couple of years.”
Korea also has been a great opportunity for growers, Lantz says, noting the Korean Free Trade Agreement helped get duties down and now exports are up 16% at $125 million.
Lantz says there’s opportunities for growth, especially in Vietnam, which is now under a 13% tariff, and the Philippines, with a 10% tariff. He estimates the potential for growth is high in the Philippines.
“For a while, we had zero duties in the Philippines, and our exports went from about 30 million to about 60 million,” he says.
Lantz says within the global market, it’s critical the U.S. potato industry continues to monitor the impact of tariffs and trade.
“We have had to work every day to make sure that we are not affected by tariffs we put on another country and [get] a retaliation,” he says.
Defending Market Access
Quarles addressed the benefits of U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which is up for review this year.
“Is it perfect? No, but you wouldn’t have the USMCA but for that tariff leverage,” he says.
Lantz says it’s important not only to maintain zero duties on exports to Mexico and Canada but also to use the USMCA reevaluation as an opportunity to improve areas of friction within the agreement.
“I will tell you that the Europeans who are aggressive exporters on the rise have gotten a zero duty in Mexico, and we certainly do not want to see Mexico [add duties to U.S. exports],” he says. “It’s a recipe for Canadian fries to just to go straight from the U.S., through the U.S. and supply Mexico.
Lantz says it took a long time to get the Mexican market open, first having to go to the Mexican Supreme Court. A challenge, though, is the market is under pressure from Mexican growers to close it again. Lantz says a frequent argument is that U.S. growers send too many products with pests down, however, he says it’s been contentious with potato mop-top virus.
“An international panel in 2010 reviewed all possible pests between the United States and Mexico,” Lantz says. “And they concluded that no virus is relevant in exports. The challenge we had in order to open the market: The Mexican government insisted on this virus being put into the agreement. They would not sign the agreement unless this virus was imposed. And we knew if they put it in there, they were going to find it. And we knew it was going to be used to try to limit our exports.”
Lantz says it’s been a lot of work to prove to the Mexican government that U.S. exports to Mexico are clean with science-based evidence. He says Mexican buyers have been pleased with shipments.
One challenge, Lantz says, is that growers export in 20-pound bags, but there is interest in expanding to bulk or larger bags.
“We are pushing very hard for that in these negotiations,” he says. “We’ll probably start with 50-pound bags, because it allows you to continue to trace back. There’s no argument against it, essentially. And then we’ll try to move on to bulk shipping.”
Quarles says the work from state grower associations, as well as Potatoes USA, has been instrumental in opening Mexico.
“Mexico’s incredibly important partner for the United States,” he says. “We want to similarly see that as a strong, durable, reliable market for the U.S. as well as for Mexican consumers. So, getting all of this right is one of our ongoing challenges.”
Lantz says the potential to open the Japan fresh potato market would be huge, noting the U.S. potato industry has been working on a pest risk assessment for more than a decade. Lantz says it has been a political issue and one he hopes will be resolved within a year or two. He adds that he sees this following a similar path to chipping potatoes.
“It’s a political issue, and we just have to find the right key to move the Japanese government to open this market,” Lantz says. “Once they make that decision, we will roll it through the rest of the questions within a year, and we’ll get that market open.
“It was always said to me that rice is so sensitive that you might have a chance at potatoes, but rice is so imperative,” he says. “Guess what? Rice is in. That was in the agreement this summer. The reason rice is in is for food security. And so, they made agreements to allow rice to come in. And so, if they can do what was the third rail of ag exports to Japan, they can make a decision to get potatoes in Japan.”
Emerging Frontiers: From Korea to West Africa
Lantz went through a few other opportunities for U.S. exports. Korea, he says, will likely open for some additional states, which he thinks will come sometime later this year. The market in China is open, he says, but it’s been harder to get the product to a processor.
“We’ve been working on this for about five years,” Lantz says. “The relationship with China is very strained right now. The market is open; we haven’t signed a deal yet. It’s just a matter of finding that [processor].”
Lantz says there has been interest in opening Senegal, Mali and the West African markets for seed potatoes, adding that Potatoes USA has been working to develop those markets.
“So, we’re hoping to develop a new, completely new market for U.S. seed potatoes there,” he says.
