All systems were go for Idaho potato grower-shippers in October.
Potato harvest in Idaho was 69% completed as of Oct. 6, close to the 66% completed at the same time last year and the 65% completed for the five-year average.
Overall U.S. potato acreage in 2024 is down slightly from 2023, according to the USDA. This year, the U.S. is forecast to plant 2% fewer acres than in 2023.
At 941,000 acres, the 2024 U.S. potato planted acreage forecast is a 24,000-acre reduction from 2023 but is 18,000 acres more than the 2020-22 average.
The USDA said decreases in acreage were most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest, which typically accounts for 60% of the domestic crop. Washington (down 10,000 acres), Idaho (down 5,000 acres) and Oregon (down 3,000 acres) are expected to have the largest downward year-over-year adjustments as processors reduce contracted acreage, the USDA said.
In 2023, the USDA reported Idaho planted 330,000 acres of potatoes.
Potato acreage reductions are also expected in seven of the 10 other USDA-surveyed states, likely reflecting higher late-season storage volumes and softer open-market prices during the September 2023 to August 2024 potato marketing year.
The USDA estimates that 934,200 acres of the 941,000 planted U.S. acres will be harvested based on average abandonment rates.
“If this estimate is realized and the U.S. average yield is close to the trendline (458 [hundredweight] per acre), total potato production would be 3% lower (12.9 million [hundredweight]) than last season, but 4% higher than the 2020-22 production average,” the USDA said.
Average yields in 2020-22 fell below trend largely due to weather-related issues in Idaho and Washington. USDA will release its preliminary 2024 U.S. and state-level potato yield and production volume in the November Crop Production report, which will include updated acreage estimates.
Price direction
Following a large fall harvest in 2023, fresh potato prices fell sharply below prices observed during the previous 16 months. The USDA reported monthly grower prices for fresh potatoes ranged from $10.20 to $10.60 per hundredweight between January and May 2024, compared with $21.20 to $23 per hundredweight during the same period in 2023.
In mid-October, shipping point prices for 70-count cartons of Idaho russet norkotah potatoes averaged $10 per 50-pound carton, off slightly from $12 per carton for 70s in mid-October 2023, the USDA reported.
Consumption up
The USDA’s preliminary per capita availability of potatoes for calendar year 2023 is 118 pounds, 5% up from 2022. The increase reflected last year’s larger domestic potato crop in addition to increased import volumes of fresh, frozen and potato chip products, the USDA said.
Fresh exports up
U.S. fresh potato exports to Mexico continue to rise, the USDA said. In the last three years, Canada and Mexico accounted for about two-thirds of U.S. fresh potato export volume, excluding seed, the USDA said.
During the 2022-23 marketing year fresh potato exports to Mexico reached a record high of 348.8 million pounds, following regulatory changes the USDA announced in mid-2022 that expanded market access for U.S. fresh potato exports to Mexico.
The USDA said the 2023-24 marketing year will surpass the previous export volume to Mexico. From September 2023 to May 2024, fresh exports to Mexico totaled 420.9 million pounds, 71% higher than the same period last season. Overall fresh export volume from September 2023 to May 2024 is up 12% from last year with the increased volume to Mexico offsetting decreases to Canada, the USDA said.
