Outlook strong for potato promotion opportunities at Christmas and beyond

Based on market conditions in early December, the 2023-24 season is setting up to be a good year for potato promotions.

Volume is up and prices are down so far for the 2023 potato crop. Total potato acreage is up this year, with the USDA reporting 2023 acreage of 964,000 acres, up from 914,000 acres in 2022. 

2023 U.S. potato area harvested, at 959,800 acres, is up 5% from the previous year. The yield forecast, at 452 cwt per acre, is up 14 cwt from last year's yield.

Idaho outlook

Potato grower-shippers and their customers are happy with the quality of the Idaho potato crop, says Ross Johnson, vice president of retail and international for the Idaho Potato Commission.

“We had a good Thanksgiving in terms of sales, and we are hoping to continue that success; we’re looking forward to the Christmas holiday promotions," he said.

The Idaho Potato Commission is urging retailers to take advantage of promotion opportunities.

“Most of the category managers today are just repeating what they've done last year because they're stretched so thin,” Johnson said. “But the potato situation in terms of supply this year, compared to the prior two years, is completely different. What we've been communicating with our retail partners is this time frame is a perfect time frame to [increase] package sizes to help consumers stretch their dollars.”

The volume moved with bigger packs will also help growers move their crops, Johnson said, adding that there is value in every pack size.

“We have actually had a couple of retailers switch back to the 10-pound bag, as they have been seeing so much success with it through the Thanksgiving time frame," he said.

Retailers also have seen success merchandising baby petite potatoes in smaller packs.

“We’ve seen that you don’t necessarily need to promote [petite potatoes] on a lower price point,” Johnson said. “It's a merchandising play; [retailers] can promote the 10-pound or the 5-pound russet [bag], and then you can merchandise unique specialty varieties around them. And you will get consumers buying both.”

Retailers may think consumers may buy either russets or petite potatoes, but Johnson said consumers will often take both options.

For foodservice sales, Johnson noted that Idaho potato products offer value to operators and their customers.

In addition to meeting domestic demand, shippers have seen increased inquiries from Asian potato customers, given the ample crop, he said.

Market dynamics

In its Dec. 3 fresh market report, Markon reported that U.S. potato supply will meet demand through the rest of the 2023-24 season due to high yields; prices will hold steady, the firm predicts.

The report noted that growers estimate 12.7% more acres were planted in Idaho this year compared with last year.

In its November crop production report, the USDA said U.S. production of potatoes for the 2023 crop year is forecast at 434 million cwt, up 9% from last year.

In Idaho, the USDA reported Dec. 4 that prices for Idaho count carton potatoes were well off from year-ago levels.

For size 50 Idaho russet Burbank potatoes, the USDA reported prices for $13-14 per carton on Dec. 4, down more than $20 per carton compared with $35 to $37 per carton the same time a year ago.

For size 60 Idaho russet burbank potatoes, the USDA reported a Dec. 4 price of $12 to $14 per carton, down from $30 to $34 per carton at the same time a year ago.

The USDA said 70-count Idaho russet burbank potatoes were trading at $12 to $13.50 per carton Dec. 4, down from $30 to $34 per carton last year at the same time.

Eighty-count Idaho russet burbank potatoes were priced at $10 to $12.50 per carton Dec. 4, down from $29 to $32 per carton a year ago.

The USDA said 90-count Idaho russet burbanks were trading at $9 to $10 per carton, about half of the 2022 price at the same time of $22 to $26 per carton.

Finally, the USDA reported prices for size 100 russet burbank potatoes at $7 to $8 per carton, down from $18 to $21 per carton at the same time a year ago.

Truck shipments of Idaho potatoes were running well above last season through Nov. 25. For the week of Nov. 19-25, Idaho truck shipments totaled 1,219 (50,000-pound) loads, up 26% from the same week a year ago.

Total Idaho truck shipments so far this season through Nov. 25 totaled 17,968 (50,000-pound) loads, up 14% from the same time last year.

In the Red River Valley, the USDA reported prices for 50-pound cartons of size B round red potatoes were $19 to $21 per carton Dec. 4, down slightly from $20.50 to $21.50 per carton at the same time last year.

Total season-to-date shipments of Minnesota potatoes were up 11% through Dec. 29, while shipments of North Dakota potatoes were up 10%, according to the USDA.

The USDA reported prices for 50-pound cartons of Red River Valley creamer yellow potatoes were $30 to $32 per carton on Dec. 4.

David Moquist, with O. C. Schulz & Sons, Crystal, N.D., said the demand for red potatoes this year "seems much stronger than last year.”

In general, Moquist said potatoes are promotable at retail this season.

“It is important for [retailers] do a fair mix of all types and that seems to help overall movement," he said. "Potatoes are still a bargain for consumers."