Cutting the Washington state apple forecast by nearly 11% from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August estimate, the U.S. Apple Association’s forecast of the U.S. crop reveals a big divergence in expectations between the two estimates.
Washington industry leaders still expect their fresh market crop in the 125 million 40-pound carton range, which the Washington State Tree Fruit Association forecast of Aug. 6. But industry leaders said the USDA estimate missed the mark on the state’s total crop.
The U.S. Apple estimate forecasts the total Washington crop at 157.25 million 42-pound cartons, down 10.8% from the USDA’s August estimate of 176.2 million bushels.
The U.S. apple forecast was rated at 243.8-million-bushel cartons by U.S. Apple, down 8.2% from the USDA’s August forecast and down 5.7% from last year’s crop.
John DeVaney, president of the Yakima-based Washington State Tree Fruit Association, said the continuing risk of heat damage on apples raises the prospect that some of the crop will not be harvestable or utilized in either fresh or processed channels.
Smoke from fires in the Northwest also could limit the time that workers can safely harvest fruit.
“Growers have told me they might have to prioritize what fruit gets picked,” he said.
The fresh apple crop was estimated at 124.8 million 40-pound cartons a couple of weeks ago, an estimate that DeVaney said was confirmed at the U.S. Apple meeting.
Washington’s fresh estimate of 124.8 million 40-pound boxes is up 2.3% from 2020’s 122-million-box crop, but down 7.2% from the 2019 crop of 134.5 million boxes.
“As far as the fresh crop it is probably a good solid mid-range estimate, DeVaney said.
While the industry believes USDA’s estimate was off, he allowed it is “hard to hit a moving target.”
Estimates could continue to change as harvest progresses over the next couple of months, he said.
“These are the industry’s best guesses, and we will see what happens at the end of the harvest.”
Michigan and New York
The U.S. Apple estimate for Michigan apple production was for a crop of 18.09 million bushel cartons, up almost 1% from the USDA August estimate but down 17.3% compared with the 2020 crop.
New York’s apple output was rated by the U.S. Apple Association estimate at 30 million bushel cartons, down 6.7% from last year and down 9% from the 2020 crop.
The Pennsylvania forecast from U.S. Apple was 10.5 million bushel cartons, down 6.7% from last year and down 9% from last year’s output.
More from the U.S. Apple Association’s Outlook 2021:
Sean Gilbert honored as The Packer’s 2021 Apple Man of the Year
U.S. Apple launches new in-depth apple report
U.S. Apple elects Chris Alpers board chair for 2021-22 term
Apple marketers must consider growth of alternative retail channels
