With nearly $6.5 billion in cross-border fresh produce trade hanging in the balance, impending Canadian retaliatory tariffs and new U.S. duties are threatening to disrupt tightly timed North American supply chains and squeeze already razor-thin grower margins.
The tensions follow recent U.S. duties levied on roughly $20 billion of Canadian exports, prompting Ottawa to slate counter measures for Sept. 8.
“Our members’ biggest concern is uncertainty and disruption across an integrated North American supply chain,” says Samantha Ayoub, director of workforce and business policy for the International Fresh Produce Association. “Last year, Canada accounted for 48% of U.S. fresh produce exports, over $3.5 billion in produce. In total, the United States and Canada share nearly $6.5 billion in annual fresh produce trade.”
Because fresh fruits, vegetables and floral products move on strict deadlines, often crossing the border within days of harvest, Ayoub says any new tariff costs, administrative requirements or retaliatory measures create challenges for planning, pricing and procurement.
Where the Squeeze is Tightest
As to the U.S. produce categories most vulnerable to Canadian retaliatory tariffs, while fresh produce exchange between the countries is critically important, Ayoub points to lettuce, strawberries and grapes as potentially hardest hit.
“Canada is the largest export market for many U.S. fresh produce products and is one of the most important destinations for U.S. agriculture overall,” she says. “According to USDA, Canada was the second-largest export market for U.S. agricultural products, valued at approximately $28.4 billion in 2024. Of the over $3.5 billion in produce sales in 2024, lettuce ($358 million), strawberries ($331 million) and grapes ($208 million) were the highest value exported to Canada.”
Concerns over these potential disruptions are grounded in recent historical precedent, as in 2025, a broad swath of U.S. produce items were subject to 25% retaliatory tariffs by Canada, shuttering access for U.S. producers, says Ayoub.
“The greatest risk is not necessarily a complete loss of market access but erosion of competitiveness,” she says. “Even temporary tariff-driven price disadvantages can shift purchasing patterns and supplier relationships to other regions, and those relationships can be difficult to regain once lost.”
Additional Tariff-Related Costs
Beyond duties that could be imposed on fresh produce itself, the current tariff dispute strikes directly at some of the tools and materials required to harvest, package and ship crops across the border.
Ayoub says produce-industry related imports were explicitly included in the new Canadian tariffs, including machines for cleaning, sorting or grading agricultural produce and packaging material like kraftliner and greaseproof paper, boxes and crates for transporting goods, and other building material as well as seeds or vegetative materials for produce and floral.
“Many fruit and vegetable growers are already operating with narrow margins while managing higher labor, transportation, compliance and weather-related expenses,” she says. “Additional tariff-related costs, even when modest on a per-unit basis, can be difficult to absorb during harvest and marketing periods.”
Floral Takes a Hit
IFPA says floral is also feeling the strain of tariff friction. As the primary U.S. supplier for growing-stage bulbs and tubers — and its third-largest source for certain fresh cut flowers — Canada plays an indispensable role in meeting U.S. demand.
“Canada is primarily a greenhouse floral supplier to the U.S., with live/potted plants representing a major part of the trade,” says Ayoub. “Canada’s ornamental exports to the U.S. are substantial: $1.13 billion [Canadian dollars] in 2024, representing 99.6% of its ornamental exports.”
Ayoub adds that the floral industry was broadly hit by these tariffs, with tariffs on cut flowers such as roses, orchids, lilies, anthuriums, alstroemeria, gypsophila and snapdragons. Inputs such as bulbs, tubers, tuberous roots, corms, crowns and rhizomes, foliage and other greenery as well as and unrooted cuttings and slips of live plants are also impacted by tariffs.
“The United States imported nearly $4.5 million of dormant bulbs and $28.5 million of bulbs, tubers, tuberous roots, corms, crowns and rhizomes in growth in 2024,” she says. “They are our fourth- and first-largest supplier of these products, respectively. They are also our third-largest supplier of cut flowers, exporting over $114 million to the U.S. in 2024, with a focus on chrysanthemums, roses, lilies and other greenhouse cut flowers.”
In 2024, Canada imported approximately CA$337.4 million in floriculture/nursery products from the U.S.
“That represented 44% of Canada’s total $766.2 million [Canadian dollars] ornamental imports,” she says. “This was mostly live plants and cuttings, potted plants, bulbs and propagation material.”
When Will Consumers Feel the Pinch?
Since the timing of price increases depends on existing contracts, inventory levels for less perishable products, commodity-specific supply conditions and retail pricing strategies, Ayoub says cost impacts generally move through the supply chain more slowly rather than overnight.
“Fruits, vegetables and floral products are particularly price-sensitive categories,” she says. “When prices rise, consumers often purchase less or switch products. Maintaining affordability is therefore critical not only for individual businesses but also for broader public health objectives tied to fruit and vegetable consumption.”
While initial inventory buffers may absorb immediate shocks, prolonged trade tension will inevitably trickle down to the checkout counter.
“If tariffs remain in place for an extended period, some additional costs are likely to be reflected in consumer prices,” says Ayoub. “The broader concern is that sustained trade disruptions could reduce year-round availability, increase volatility and make it more difficult for families to consistently purchase fresh produce.”
