CHICAGO — At 6% below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August forecast and down 6% from 2017 production, the U.S. Apple Association estimates the 2018 apple crop at 256.16 million (42-pound) cartons.
West
The forecast, released Aug. 24 at the U.S. Apple Association’s Annual Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference, shows a decline in expectations for output in Washington state. The apple association forecast pegs Washington 2018 production at 155 million cartons, down 10% from the USDA’s August forecast of 171.4 million cartons. The U.S. Apple estimate for Washington is off 13% from 2017 production and 5% below the five-year average.
Washington growers reported that the early harvested apple crop has fallen short of their expectations — in some cases significantly — said Jon DeVaney, president of the Washington Tree Fruit Association, Yakima. Uneven bloom timing has resulted in uneven maturity rates in orchards.
Overall Western U.S. apple production is estimated at 166.2 million cartons, down 9% from the USDA’s August estimate and down 12% from a year ago.
Midwest and East
The association’s numbers for Michigan and New York are virtually the same as August USDA estimates. The U.S. Apple estimates for New York is 31 million cartons, unchanged from the USDA estimate of 30.9 million cartons and unchanged from last year’s output.
In Michigan, the U.S. Apple estimate of 28 million cartons is unchanged from the USDA’s August estimate of 27.96 million cartons. Michigan’s forecasted crop is 40% above a year ago and 8% higher than the five-year average.
Michigan accounts for about 90% of Midwest production, said Mike Rothwell, president and CEO of BelleHarvest Fruit Sales Inc., Belding, Mich.
The Michigan apple crop falls short of the record 2016 crop of 30.4 million cartons. He said the infrastructure is in place in Michigan to handle this year’s large crop.
The apple crop has clean appearance and the fruit size is normal, and labor supply through the H-2A program is expected to be adequate.
From a fresh apple perspective, fuji, Honeycrisp and gala account for 50% of the production in Michigan and that number will grow.
“The Midwest is going to have a very solid crop, very close to the five-year average and the quality should be very good,” he said.
The U.S. Apple estimate for the Midwest calls for a crop of 31.6 million cartons, virtually unchanged from the August estimate off 31.4 million cartons and up 35% from a year ago.
Eastern regions have apple crop volumes similar to a year ago, said Joel Crist, orchard manager for Crist Brothers Apple Orchards, Walden, N.Y.
In New England, rainfall has been adequate, and sizing is promising. Vermont has had some dry weather, but in general, New England production is close to year-ago output. Packouts are expected to be good and color is coming along.
In Virginia, there have been excessive rains in May and June and rains continue. Overall, Crist said growers report a strong crop and volume similar to a year ago.
In Pennsylvania, growers expect a 12-million-bushel crop that is down 5% from a year ago. Early harvest shows better than expected yields by some growers.
New York growers report a full crop in the lower valley, similar to the five-year average.
Rainfall since June has helped fruit sizing. Most of western New York is reporting small fruit size but clean quality and fairly steady volume compared with a year ago.
The U.S. Apple estimate predicts an Eastern U.S. apple crop of 58.4 million cartons, nearly unchanged from the USDA’s August estimate of 58.7 million cartons and down 1% from a year ago.
