CHICAGO — Following a record-breaking crop last year, apple growers expect another strong year according to a new report released by the U.S. Apple Association (USApple) at its 129th annual Outlook conference.
The report shows a projected crop size of 259,517,252 — measured in 42-pound bushels — which the association said is a 10.1% decrease in production from last year’s final production figure.
“Despite various challenges, the resilience and dedication of our growers have led to another promising year for apple production,” said Chris Gerlach, vice president of insights and analytics for USApple. “The data we’ve gathered not only highlights the strength of our industry, but also underscores the importance of innovation and adaptability in ensuring a bountiful harvest.”
The U.S. Apple Association said the report, authored by Gerlach, bases its figures on USDA estimates and USApple member production estimates. Gerlach adjusts the USDA figures based on grower input.
“Growers from across the U.S. are reporting the crop quality is excellent,” Gerlach said in a news release. “These figures are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only look at the top seven apple-producing states. USApple analyzes the production from states outside of the top seven and adds that back into USDA’s figure. It also incorporates feedback from growers based on what they’re seeing in the field every day.”
Notable state estimates include California with 5,476,190 42-pound bushels; Michigan with 30.5 million; New York with 31 million; Oregon with 3,571,429; Pennsylvania with 11.5 million; Virginia with 4,750,000; Washington with 155 million and other states contributing 17,719,632.
Varieties
According to USApple figures, gala remains the top variety grown, with more than 48 million bushels expected, which is about 17% of the U.S. apple market. Rounding out the top five are red delicious (12.3%), granny smith (10%), Honeycrisp (9.8%) and fuji (9.4%).
USApple’s figures show a rise Pink Lady/cripps pink and Cosmic Crisp production. Fuji, rome and other varieties remain consistent according to 2019-20 production volumes. The report shows gala and red delicious are on the decline in production. Honeycrisp, while showing a five-year upward trend, has a year-over-year decrease.
“We still see strong Honeycrisp production, but it’s tempered this year,” said Gerlach. “With volumes aligning more closely with gala and red delicious, we may see production levels stabilize rather than increase dramatically in the future.”
Trade outlook
According to USDA trade data, fresh apple exports totaled 46.4 million bushels in the 2023-24 calendar year (July to June), which is approximately 14 million bushels higher than 2022-23 export levels. Gerlach said this is a 44% year-over-year increase.
Apple imports dropped by 15% in the 2023-24 calendar year (June to July) or approximately 1 million bushels. Gerlach said this increase in exports and decrease in imports resulted in a positive trade balance of more than 42 million bushels.
Gerlach attributed this increase in exports to strong domestic supply, competitive global pricing and favorable trade policies.
“Thanks to the removal of previously imposed tariffs on our apples, exports to India are up nearly 4,000% year over year. We are optimistic that this critical market will continue to grow in volume and value,” said Gerlach.
Global production
During a look at global production, Gerlach said United Nations data showed worldwide apple production exceeded 5 billion bushels for the first time in 2022, which is the latest data point.
In 2022 China produced 2.5 million bushels — half the world’s total supply. Turkey overtook the U.S. in 2021 to become the second-largest apple producer and widened the gap, growing 253 million bushels or about 5% of the world’s production.
U.N. figures credited the U.S. with 232 million bushes, which is about 4.6% of global production.
Poland at 4.4% and India at 2.7% rounded out the top five apple-producing countries.
