This year’s apple production forecast to top 10.5B pounds

Consumers will have a plentiful supply of apples in 2023 as the U.S. apple industry continues to perform well, according to a new report released by the U.S. Apple Association on Aug. 18 at the organization’s Outlook 2023 conference in Chicago.

USApple’s “Industry Outlook 2023” report provides data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization and trade. Authored by USApple Director of Industry Analytics Chris Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the trends and forces — from political headwinds to weather events — that shape the U.S. apple industry, according to a news release.

Overall apple production

According to USApple’s analysis of USDA data, total U.S. apple production for the 2023-24 crop year is forecast at 250 million bushels. This represents a 1.5% increase compared to last year’s production figure, the release said.

These figures are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only examines the top seven apple-producing states. USApple analyzes the production from states outside of the top seven and adds that back into USDA’s figure, according to the release.

Related news: Apple production rises, cranberry crop down, USDA says

“With considerable increases and decreases from top apple producing states, we’re pleased to net out with national apple production that will not only meet last year’s figure but exceed it slightly — there will certainly be plenty of high-quality U.S. apples available to consumers,” Gerlach said in the release.

Top varieties 

According to the release, the top five apple varieties include:

• Gala — 46 million bushels.

• Red delicious — 31 million bushels.

• Honeycrisp — 28 million bushels.

• Other varieties — 25 million bushels.

• Fiji — 25 million bushels.

At the varietal level, gala is expected to retain the top spot with more than 45 million bushels produced, accounting for around 18% of the U.S. apple market, the release said.

Included in the top five this year are “other varieties.” Seeing “other varieties” make its way into the top five produced varieties is an illustration of consumers’ growing appetite for all different types of apples, according to the release, which also noted that granny smith just missed the top five with 24.6 million bushels. 

“We learned today during an Outlook 2023 presentation that 48% of consumers say they generally buy the same variety of apple every time they shop,” Gerlach said. “That means 52% of shoppers might be willing to make an apple purchase based on different attributes, like flavor, appearance and store promos. With an almost 50/50 split, there are opportunities for growers to harness consumers’ love of a familiar favorite or to sell them something new.”

Though red delicious remains the second-most-produced apple, its production has declined steeply over five years, the release said. Red delicious decreased by 42%, or 23 million bushels, compared with 2018-19 production volumes. Conversely, Honeycrisp production has increased by 46% or almost 9 million bushels during the same period, according to the release.

Top U.S. producing states

At the state level, Washington will remain the nation’s top producer with an estimated crop of 160 million bushels valued at more than $2 billion. This production level represents a 9% increase from the 2022-23 crop year.

Following its largest-ever-recorded crop last year, Michigan is projected to decrease production by more than 15% to 27.4 million bushels. It is expected, however, that it will hold on to the No. 2 spot ahead of New York, as that state was hit with a late-spring frost causing production to fall by almost 19% to 26.2 million bushels, the release said.

Pennsylvania, California, Virginia and Oregon round out the top producing apple states respectively, according to the report.

Apple trade

Fresh apple exports totaled 36.2 million bushels in 2022 — a 7% decline from 2021 levels, according to the report. At the same time, fresh apple imports also decreased by nearly 13% to 5.3 million bushels. 

While the U.S. still maintains a healthy net positive balance of trade, there is much work needed to get back to the high-water mark set in 2018, when total exports were 48.5 million bushels and the trade balance was 41.6 million bushels, according to the release.

“With the recent news that India has lifted its 20% retaliatory tariff on U.S. apples, we’re hoping to see that export number start to increase as we build back that critical market,” Gerlach said.