2022 fresh produce retail inflation forecast doubles 2021 rate

Retail inflation for fresh fruits and vegetables in 2022 is forecast to double compared with 2021, the latest USDA Food Price report says.

Retail fresh fruit and vegetable inflation for all of 2022 is forecast in a range from 6.5% to 7.5% over 2021, according to the USDA. That compares with a 20-year historical average fresh produce retail inflation rate of just 2%, a 3.3% rate in 2021, 0.8% in 2020 and 1% in 2019.

Looking at fresh fruit only, the USDA forecast the category’s inflation rate at a sizzling range from 8.5% to 9.5% for 2022, up from the 20-year historical average of 1.8%, the 2021 rate of 5.5%, a decline of 0.8% in 2020 and a 1.4% decline in 2019.

Forecast at 4% to 5% for 2022, fresh vegetable inflation is about double the 20-year historical average of 2.1%, about four times the 1.1% level of 2021, and well higher than the inflation rates of 2.6% in 2020 and 3.8% in 2019.

The USDA report said the inflation rate for all food increased 1% from March 2022 to April 2022, and all food prices were 9.4% higher in April than in April 2021.

The updated 2022 inflation forecast for all food is between 6.5% and 7.5%, compared with a 20-year historical average of 2.4%, a 3.9% inflation rate in 2021 and a 3.4% rate in 2020.

The USDA said restaurant food prices increased 0.6% in April and were running 7.2% higher than April 2021. Grocery prices, the report said jumped 1.3% from March to April and were 10.8% higher than April 2021.

The USDA said food price increases are expected to be above the increases observed in 2020 and 2021. 

For all of 2022, grocery prices are predicted to increase between 7% and 8% percent, and restaurant prices are predicted to increase between 6% and 7%, the report said.