Grocery food inflation isn’t easy to tame, and the USDA’s latest inflation forecast for 2023 predicts prices for the year could rise as much as 10% over 2022.
“Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at above-historical average rates,” the USDA’s Food Price Outlook said in late March.
In 2023, the USDA said all food prices are predicted to increase 7.5%, with a prediction interval of 5.5% to 9.6%.
Grocery food prices are predicted to increase 7.8%, with a prediction interval of 5.3% to 10.5%, the forecast said.
Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 8.3%, with a prediction interval of 7.2% to 9.3%, according to the report.
Inflation by food category
The USDA said fruit and vegetable retail inflation in 2023 will be tame compared with other categories.
“Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are predicted to continue their relatively slow growth from 2022,” the report said. “Fresh fruits prices are predicted to increase 0.6% in 2023, with a prediction interval of -3.9% to 5.6%.”
Fresh vegetables retail prices are predicted to increase 1.3% in 2023, with a prediction interval of -5.1% to 8%, the USDA said.
Farm-level vegetable prices are predicted to decrease 4.5% in 2023, with a prediction interval of -22.2% to 18.8%.
The USDA projects higher inflation for 2023 for various foods:
- Fats and oils: 15.4%
- Processed fruits and vegetables: 11.4%
- Sugar and sweets: 11.1%
- Cereals and bakery products: 11.7%
- Nonalcoholic beverages: 10.7%
Some food categories are expected to show lower prices for the year:
- Beef and veal prices: -1%
- Pork: -0.8%
