Sinking energy costs allowed year-over-year inflation to check in at a cool 2.4% in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Oct. 10.
September’s Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment, according to the BLS report.
The index for shelter rose 0.2% in September, and the index for food increased 0.4%. Together, the BLS said those two indexes contributed over 75% of the monthly all items increase.
The food-at-home (grocery) index increased 0.4% in September and the food away-from-home (restaurant) index rose 0.3% over the month. The energy index fell 1.9% over the month after declining 0.8% the preceding month.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.8% in September, while the index for eggs increased 8.4%. The fruits and vegetables index increased 0.9% over the month, following a 0.2% decline in August, the report said. The index for other food at home rose 0.2% in September and the index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.3%. The dairy and related products index increased 0.1% over the month, while the nonalcoholic beverages index was unchanged in September.
The restaurant food index rose 0.3% in September, as it did in August. The index for full-service meals rose 0.4% and the index for limited-service meals increased 0.2% over the month.
The index for grocery food prices rose 1.3% over the last 12 months. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index rose 3.9% over the last 12 months and the nonalcoholic beverages index increased 1.3%.
Over the same period, the index for fruits and vegetables rose 0.7% and the index for other food at home increased 0.4%. The dairy and related products index increased 0.5% in September, and the cereals and bakery products index increased 0.1% over the year.
The restaurant food price index rose 3.9% over the last year. The index for limited-service meals increased by 4.1% over the last 12 months and the index for full-service meals rose by 3.9% over the same period.
Retail reaction
“The latest CPI numbers demonstrate that taming inflation continues to be an uneven process,” Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development for The Food Industry Association, said in a statement. “Food prices are driven by many factors and can be volatile, as demonstrated by September’s 0.4% increase in the food-at-home CPI. But we shouldn’t let a single month’s data obscure the very real progress that has been made addressing food price inflation — on a year-over-year basis, food-at-home inflation came in at 1.3%, a very strong showing.”
Harig said food-at-home price increases remain cooler than food away from home.
“Food from grocery stores is still the most economical option for consumers, as evidenced by food inflation continuing to be markedly lower than both ‘core’ and overall inflation,” he said. “We remain cautiously optimistic that the worst of food price inflation is behind us and consumers will continue to experience a more stable pricing environment. There are undoubtedly challenges ahead, not the least of which is assessing and addressing the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The food supply chain is resilient, and the lessons learned throughout the COVID-19 era have fostered additional safeguards in the system that can help protect against future shocks.”
