The USDA’s new forecast for retail grocery inflation in 2022 tops 10%, close to three times the 3.5% inflation rate in 2021.
In the latest Food Price Outlook report, the USDA said grocery prices for all of 2022 are predicted to increase between 10% and 11%. Restaurant food prices are projected to increase between 6.5% and 7.5% for all of 2022, according to the agency. All food prices for 2022 are projected to increase between 8.5% and 9.5%, according to the report.
Grocery food inflation rose 1.4% from June 2022 to July 2022, and towered 13.1% higher than July 2021; the restaurant food inflation rate rose 0.7% from June 2022 to in July 2022, 7.6% higher than July 2021.
The USDA said retail fresh fruit and vegetable prices are projected to increase 6.5% to 7.5% in 2022, with projected inflation falling in a range from down 0.5% to up 0.5% up in 2023.
Average retail fresh fruit prices will increase 8.5% to 9.5% in 2022 but fall to a range from down 0.5% to 0.5% higher in 2023.
Average retail fresh vegetable prices will grow 4% to 5% in 2022, but dropping to a range from down 0.5% down to up 0.5% for 2023.
Overall food Inflation will ease in 2023, the USDA projects.
“Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than 2022, but still above historical average rates,” the USDA said in the report. In 2023, all grocery prices are predicted to increase between 2% and 3%, and restaurant food prices are predicted to increase between 3% and 4%.
In 2021, grocery prices increased 3.5% and restaurant food prices increased 4.5%, while 2020 grocery prices rose 3.5% and restaurant food prices rose 3.4%, the USDA said.
Vegetable spike
The USDA said farm-level vegetable prices rose by 12.7% in July 2022 and stood a whopping 61.5% above July 2021.
“This month-over-month increase was due to a combination of low storage and production and seasonal factors,” the USDA said. Farm-level vegetable prices are now predicted to increase between 15.5% and 18.5% in 2022; farm level vegetable prices for 2023 are projected to range from 1.5% lower to 1.5% higher than 2022.
Farm-level fruit prices for 2022 are projected at 12.5% to 15.5% higher, while farm-level prices for 2023 will range from unchanged to 3% higher compared with 2022, the USDA said.
