For U.S. produce purveyors, the biggest threat in trade with Canada isn’t a headline-grabbing tariff debate; it’s the steady retreat of the Canadian consumer. As growing consumer reluctance toward American products takes hold across the provinces, shifting shopper preferences are impacting cross-border sourcing habits.
While political rhetoric continues to dominate trade talks, Canadian Produce Marketing Association President Ron Lemaire warns that U.S. exporters are missing the real story: a permanent, structural realignment of the Canadian market.
Fueled by changing consumer behavior, unprecedented Canadian federal investment in domestic food resiliency, and long-term infrastructure overhauls, the northern market is changing fast — and U.S. suppliers who fail to adapt to these new commercial realities risk losing their footprint long after the political noise fades.
Nowhere is this realignment clearer than at the retail level. As trade tensions flare in the headlines, Canadian consumers are making their own statements at the register, turning away from U.S. produce and forcing Canadian buyers to adjust their importing strategies in real time.
“The bigger issue is consumer sentiment, and as trade tensions increase and decisions are made — and the honest answer is the president’s announcement of Lake Ontario being ‘Lake America’ didn’t resonate well with many Canadians — and that impacts the till,” says Lemaire.
Canadian consumers’ reluctance toward U.S. goods forces retailers to discount American products heavily just to keep inventory moving, he says. Ultimately, U.S. suppliers absorb those losses through squeezed margins.
“That’s the bigger story we need to be aware of,” says Lemaire. “As businesses, we can do as much as we can to effectively manage our supply chains and reduce our costs to deal with food inflation, but the consumer will make a choice and will force Canadian retail to diversify their procurement if they’re not purchasing certain products.”
This consumer-led shift is already reshaping supermarket shelves. Recent reports indicate the share of U.S. imported vegetables entering Canada fell to 62.6% in July, down from 69% in 2023. Meanwhile, Canadian grocery chains are actively adjusting their procurement strategies and doubling down on clear labeling to satisfy customer demand for domestic produce.
“Country of origin label is so big,” Lemaire says. “Consumer complaints to retail, if they are not current on their in-store labeling, has increased. Which is an indicator that they’re paying close attention when shopping.”
Lemaire stresses that this shift isn’t personal; it is a calculated pushback against U.S. political rhetoric rather than the American people or individual growers.
“The collateral damage is the U.S. commercial environment, which then trickles down to those employed within the U.S.,” he says. “But this is all about a message to the administration in the U.S. by the Canadian public.”
Prioritizing Commercial Realities Over Politics
Led by Mark Carney, a prime minister grounded in extensive business experience, Canada is making an unprecedented investment in its own food resiliency while simultaneously adjusting its buying, importing and exporting strategies faster than ever before.
That shift in focus was evident during CPMA’s recent board meetings, where tariffs and trade took a backseat to core operational strategies — a sign Lemaire views as proof Canadian businesses are prioritizing commercial realities over politics.
When trade concerns did arise during a session with Canada’s minister of agriculture, CPMA highlighted its aggressive lobbying against proposed retaliatory tariffs on cardboard packaging. Lemaire says the association’s swift pushback prompted immediate federal action to exempt the sector, sparing individual produce companies potential cost spikes between $300,000 and $1 million while securing a critical victory for cross-border supply chain stability.
“They don’t want to impact the public in ways that they can avoid,” Lemaire says, noting that both government officials and food industry partners across Canada and the U.S. share a unified goal. “They are all saying the same thing to government: food inflation and food affordability is a significant issue, and the tariffs have to avoid any direct or even collateral impact to it.”
Beyond immediate tariff wins, Lemaire says discussions centered on long-term infrastructure and domestic efficiency. Board members engaged with both the minister of agriculture on the future of Canada’s National Food Security Strategy — including developing new food hubs and terminals — and the Conservative agricultural critic to explore opposition market priorities and areas of political alignment.
Rather than getting paralyzed by political uncertainties like upcoming elections or the future of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA/USMCA, Lemaire emphasizes that the industry’s path forward lies in identifying efficiencies in its own operations and driving business with an eye to the future.
“It’s a moving target. It’s unpredictable,” Lemaire says. “If you’re continually trying to understand the unpredictable, you’re never going to be successful. How to deal with what you know today was a big focus of our discussions.”
Canada’s Business-First Pivot
“The Canadian government is extremely strategic right now,” says Lemaire, pointing to a federal government that’s reframing trade and domestic production in response to U.S. economic pressure.
Backed by a prime minister with central banking experience rather than a political background, Canada is retooling its market environment to enable both diversified trade deals and internal resiliency.
“This is a prime minister who ran the Bank of England, ran the Bank of Canada. He’s quite qualified, but what’s he’s not is a politician, which changes the game by how he approaches Canada as a business,” says Lemaire. “And he is putting the business mechanisms in place to enable this to happen faster than I’ve ever seen it happen before.”
Domestically, the government has introduced a $3 billion National Food Security Strategy aimed at boosting greenhouse production, expanding key facilities like the Ontario Food Terminal, and creating more efficient regional distribution hubs.
However, building true food resiliency isn’t as simple as scaling up existing production, since Ontario’s greenhouse sector already exports upwards of 90% of its volume to the U.S. Instead, Lemaire says the federal strategy focuses on crop diversification beyond tomatoes and cucumbers.
“We can’t eat our way out of the volume of product we already grow now,” Lemaire explains. “The federal investment is looking at diversification or other commodities. So, what does a strawberry expansion look like, or other opportunities in controlled environment?”
Internationally, Canada is tearing down trade barriers to open new shipping lanes, contributing to a 30% jump in exports to China in the first half of the year alone, according to Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute. And while these exports are primarily in sectors such as energy products, minerals and ores, they signify an important shift in trading partners.
“Fresh produce may be perishable, but if [commodities that can handle the distance] have a clear, concise and consistent path to a new market, people will take advantage of that,” Lemaire says. “This is the unknown that we’re watching: What do all these other business strategies from other sectors in agri-food mean to the fresh produce industry jumping onto new supply channels?”
While new trade deals expand global reach, Lemaire stresses that overseas markets can never replace the core cross-border trade relationship, primarily due to the physical realities of produce logistics.
“We can increase new markets, but proximity is key,” Lemaire says. “So, the U.S. market is fundamental for U.S.-to-Canada and Canada-to-U.S. We can add more trade deals into place, but for our industry it’s only going to service very specific commodities that can handle the distance to destination.”
Because perishable goods rely heavily on immediate supply routes, keeping commercial channels open between the two nations remains one of CPMA’s top priorities. Lemaire urges commercial operators and political leaders to look beyond political friction and focus on business stability to keep food affordable and supply chains moving.
“How we build that out is making sure we continue to support relationships between our existing partners in Canada and the U.S. — that we don’t listen to the politics, but we listen to the business,” he says. “We need to continue to support our messaging to our elected officials on both sides of the border — to do no harm — and to enable business to do what they do best, and that’s just to compete.”
How U.S. Exporters Can Maintain Canadian Market Share
Despite trade headwinds, Lemaire remains deeply optimistic about the enduring power of cross-border collaboration, pointing out that foundational demand for quality produce hasn’t changed.
“As an industry, we just need to keep reassuring ourselves that partnerships we have are key between Canada and the U.S.,” he says. “The Canadian public is still looking for the right quality, the right freshness and the right price. But we need to have it in that order.”
That commitment to partnership will take center stage at the upcoming Tri-National Accord meetings in Calgary, where historic levels of state, provincial and federal leadership across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico will gather to push for frictionless trade. For Lemaire, the strong participation —including delegates representing around 40 U.S. states — signals a shared determination at the grassroots level to protect continental supply lines.
When asked what actionable advice he has for U.S. grower-packer-shippers aiming to navigate political headwinds and maintain strong business north of the border, Lemaire offers a straightforward playbook focused on active engagement and direct communication: “Be present. For any events in Canada, be here, whether regional events, CPMA events, be part of it. And make sure you continue to develop and nurture your relationships with your customers here. Business is still the key. We have no control over the tariff regime or the messaging of our elected officials, but we have full control over how we work with our customer and how we work with our vendor to make sure that we have an open, clear dialogue.”
Personal connections and operational transparency will serve individual partnerships, but they exist within a Canadian market that is actively redefining itself.
“The world is never going to go back to where it was, and the domestic economy in Canada is changing,” says Lemaire. “What it’ll look like in two years’ time is hard to say. But with all the investment and strategies happening at a federal level here and a provincial level, it definitely will be different than how we’re operating in September 2026.”
