With cantaloupe planters rolling in the fields around him, Yuma County, Ariz., farmer John Boelts isn’t thinking about these seeds; he has the future on his mind.
Boelts thinks a recent release from the Department of the Interior means parts of the state could experience cuts to their water supply in 2027. The typically two-crop growing season could see changes.
“We have rights to water to be able to do that and have been doing that for many decades in this community, long before I was even born,” says Boelts, who’s also president of the Arizona Farm Bureau. “We’re worried that this year, in certain areas of our county that have more junior rights, we might see some dramatic reductions in water availability, and that’s just here in this county where we have very secure and good, old water rights. Across Arizona, we have even bigger concerns about what these reductions in delivery will mean.”
On July 31, the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation released its long-awaited Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for the Colorado River. The Public Policy Institute of California reports the river system irrigates 5.5 million acres of farmland and supplies 30 tribal nations and Mexico.
The announcement lays a 10-year framework for the water system, including the two main reservoirs — Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The guidance then advises the seven basin states in two-year plans. The upper basin covers parts of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico. The lower basin accounts for the areas of Arizona, California and Nevada.
Boelts calls the FEIS the “initial glancing blow,” as Arizona Farm Bureau pores through the details, waiting for the Interior Department to release a record of decision and the two-year operating plan.
“My first thought about this decision that came forth in the FEIS is that it doesn’t really fit with what President [Donald] Trump had talked about both on the campaign trail in both elections,” Boelts says. “We have concerns about, you know, these reductions in deliveries, but there is the other side of things. You can’t make water.”
Who Gets Water?
Under the FEIS the lower basin states could be required to reduce their water use by up to 3 million acre-feet. An acre foot is approximately 326,000 gallons. The Arizona Capitol Times reports the change means Arizona could lose 77% of it’s Colorado River water supply. The upper basin states would make voluntary cuts. In a press release, the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) calls the FEIS and its sideboards “unacceptable for the state of Arizona.”
“The FEIS framework also fails to include any Upper Basin reductions or sufficient use of water stored in the Upper Initial Units (reservoirs above Lake Powell),” the ADWR statement says.
Arizona is a “first in time, first in right” state. It means those with the most senior water rights would be the last to be hit with reductions. KJZZ reports following the Colorado River Indian Tribes, many Yuma County farmers have some of the oldest water rights in the state. It’s good news for farmers in Boelts’ area, but doesn’t mean they’re in the clear either.
“I think worst case scenario, we would see lots of fallowing,” Boelts says. Though there is a robust economy in Yuma County, the state industry leader says agriculture is still a dominant economic driver. “We are a cornerstone of a functioning economy. The idea of reductions in water deliveries is gonna wreak havoc on our agricultural and municipal communities as well.”
Ranching in the Upper Basin: A Look at the Future
“I think if we could hop in the DeLorean and pop out in 40 years, ideally agriculture is still the anchor in so many of these rural communities as far as the economic engine,” says Dan Waldvogle, director of research at Western States Ranches. “That folks are still in business, that the next generation has the opportunity to farm and ranch, but it probably will look a little different.”
In the upper basin, the Land Report states the ranches covers about 6,000 deeded acres and 200,000 acres of leases through the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service. The ranch is primarily a cow-calf operation and it operates as a living laboratory for scientists to study the land, water and livestock.
The company has experimented with deficit irrigation, where it turns off the water supply on specific fields for parts of the growing season. The group is also growing alternative forage for livestock that takes less water to grow. Waldvogle says the ranch is happy to see the upper basin contribution program included in the FEIS. It could allow producers to be compensated for voluntary conservation programs that save water.
“Farmers and ranchers really need a predictable water supply,” Waldvogle says. “We can’t be making growing decisions, making business decisions, one year at a time. We really need a long runway. So, we’re really hoping that this is really a foundation for a broader operating plan. We’re going to need a phased approach. We’re gonna need to put a lot more meat on the bone, and a lot more voluntary cooperation among producers, among states and among all water users.”
Waldvogle says hay prices have increased because of the water shortage. He thinks the operating costs mean livestock owners could end up losing money despite high cattle prices.
“We are starting to see our local sale barns get busier and busier with having to sell off livestock,” Waldvogle says. “There’s a lot of folks that are concerned that they’re not gonna have enough forage to get through the next winter.”
The current guidelines for the river expire Oct. 1, the same day the water year restarts. Waldvogle says farmers and ranchers need every available tool in their toolbox to face the issues at hand.
“It is dire,” he says. “We are to a point that if we do not have a good, not even just an average, but a very good water year this winter, [and] if we don’t really restore that snow bank and really get the water in these reservoirs that we critically need, we’re going to start seeing really big ripple effects throughout the system.”
