Geospatial mapping to help identify threats to South Carolina farmland
Modeling software has become sophisticated enough that when you plug in specific variables, it can simulate possible outcomes with unnerving accuracy. When layered with GIS mapping software that can pinpoint land-based data as broadly or precisely as the user requests, it’s possible to build a sophisticated tool that can predict the future with variables grounded in both space and time.
American Farmland Trust, in partnership with several South Carolina governmental and advocacy groups, is launching a tool that does precisely this to preserve vital farmland at risk of development. Palmetto 2040: Visioning Alternative Futures, Launching Solutions is a geospatial modeling and policy analysis tool designed to identify and model future outcomes, areas at highest risk of development and threats to South Carolina’s farmland, jobs and quality of life, according to a news release.
Ultimately, Palmetto 2040 seeks to identify how the state's agriculture, business, quality of life, and environment would fare under specific scenarios, as well as spark discussion on tradeoffs and identify consensus and potential policy solutions.
“Together, our coalition will highlight the opportunities to improve state and local farmland protection policies, increase state and local funding and take advantage of federal matching funds,” Ryan Murphy, American Farmland Trust’s GIS manager, said in the release.
Combining geospatial analysis and policy insights will help local and state policymakers be better informed and motivated to act, Murphy said.
Using Lexington County as a pilot, the mapping tool will project what land is at highest risk of development by 2040. The analysis will take into account both rapid population growth and climate change impact on settlement patterns and agriculture, according to the release.
Balancing farmland conservation with development
“When it comes to balancing the need for development with protecting farmland and resources, none of these conversations are easy,” South Carolina Agriculture Commissioner Hugh Weathers said in the release. “We look forward to working together to identify the best paths forward for South Carolina.”
American Farmland Trust’s "Farms Under Threat: The State of the States" report asserts that South Carolina is at high risk for future farmland loss, giving the state the eighth-highest “threat score” in the nation, with over 280,000 acres of farmland converted between 2001 and 2016.
What’s more, Lexington County led the state in farmland conversion from 2001 to 2016, with over 29,000 acres of farmland paved, fragmented or compromised by commercial, industrial and residential development, according to the release.
“Lexington County has long been a top producer of agricultural commodities in South Carolina, and now we are losing farmland at one of the highest rates in the state,” Lexington County Farm Bureau President Brandon Myers said in the release. “This project will help us make a plan to grow our county and state responsibly, while continuing to be stewards of our most important resource: land.”
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The Palmetto 2040 project will first convene a group in Lexington County that includes key public and private conservation organizations, land trusts, farm groups and governmental officials working on farmland protection. After project kickoff, American Farmland Trust plans to draft maps of the threats that Lexington County’s agricultural land will face in the next dozen years.
From this data, stakeholders and citizen groups will use the maps to discuss and envision agriculture, business and conservation in Lexington County. American Farmland Trust envisions building a broad coalition around the policy solutions identified and targeting public and private conservation organizations, land trusts, farm groups, state agencies, local planners and interested citizen groups to enact necessary changes, according to the release.
The South Carolina Department of Agriculture, Lexington County Farm Bureau, American Farmland Trust and the Winthrop Family Fund are providing support for the project, with SustainSC as the convening partner, the release said.
