A super El Niño is a powerful climate phenomenon driven by the abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a pattern capable of severely disrupting global weather, wind and rainfall. Entering the second half of 2026, meteorologists are warning that this looming climate shock will trigger intense heatwaves and droughts in some global regions while dumping heavy, erratic rainfall in others.
For the fresh produce sector, which operates on zero shelf-life buffers, these simultaneous climate extremes present an immediate threat. Rohit Tripathi, vice president of industry strategy for CPG and manufacturing for Relex, says weather risks have officially become a baseline factor in modern supply chain management, shifting the conversation among grocery retailers from simple product shortages to deep, unpredictable market volatility.
The Produce Vulnerability Matrix
“My biggest concern is the volatility that super El Niño will bring across availability, quality and cost,” Tripathi says.
He notes fresh produce is uniquely vulnerable because of short shelf lives, tight harvest windows and rigid retailer specifications.
“People will need to have the tomatoes of particular types and quality, or corn of a type and quality, and so all of those have to be met,” he adds.
The projected weather extremes threaten to pinch these windows from multiple angles.
“Heat waves can reduce yield and size. Too much rain will reduce and delay harvesting, and it can disrupt transport,” Tripathi says. “Bring all of these together. This is the pressure that I see coming for fresh produce.”
The Consumer Barometer
This operational volatility directly collides with consumer behavior and sentiment. Relex recently conducted a consumer pulse survey that highlighted just how closely shoppers monitor the produce aisle.
“We found that 35% of the shoppers use fresh produce prices as a cost of living indicator,” Tripathi says.
Despite rising costs, 68% of consumers say fresh groceries are worth paying more for.
“The retailers now have a delicate balance,” Tripathi says. “While they have to protect the availability and freshness, they have to do so without doing the unnecessary price hike.”
Shifts in Shopping Habits
When prices do spike or disruptions occur, consumers adjust their buying habits quickly. The Relex survey found over 50% of people stock up during promotions.
“We are all smart enough as consumers,” Tripathi notes. “So what we will do is take the produce, buy now, stock up now while the promotions are running and use them later on.”
Additionally, nearly 40% of consumers shift to buying smaller quantities when prices rise, or they substitute fresh items with alternative formats.
“We are doing more substitutions, and we are certainly trending down to like frozen categories or canned categories,” Tripathi says.
Strategies for Retailer Resilience
To mitigate localized price spikes and handle sudden drops in supply, Tripathi advises retailers to diversify their sourcing networks and practice stricter inventory discipline.
“Clearly, what they have to think about is already diversifying the regions or the producers,” Tripathi says. “Diversifying that base from where you’re sourcing the fresh produce will certainly help you bring in some stability.”
He also recommends looking carefully at the product mix and keeping SKU variations contained rather than attempting to offer wide varieties of the same items.
“Being more rational about it and being more focused and disciplined in keeping that SKU mix contained will certainly help retailers,” Tripathi says.
Prepare for the Shockwave
With the impacts of El Niño expected to surface around November 2026, forward-thinking supply chain leaders are already preparing.
“What good supply chain leaders are doing is they’re doing a mapping of their vulnerable SKUs and the sourcing regions and reviewing them against supplier concentrations,” Tripathi says. “They are stress testing alternate origins; they are aligning procurement. They are running scenarios right now to see what it could be.”
Companies are also evaluating alternative transportation routes in case of flooding and determining whether to front-load or delay promotions. Retailers can use these promotional shifts to give themselves “some breathing room to manage,” Tripathi says, before disruptions hit full force.
Ultimately, Tripathi emphasizes data must translate into operational changes to be effective. Relex integrates weather data into machine learning models to help retailers make informed decisions ahead of time.
“Weather risk is now a real risk, and we need to acknowledge that,” Tripathi says. “Weather data is available, but it’s only useful if you’re using it to make decisions. What good is knowing something if you don’t let it drive any decisions?”
