The USDA’s Economic Research Service has published a summary of climate change-related research on agriculture.
The research includes examinations of:
- The impacts of climate change and weather on crop production, livestock production and international trade.
- The implications of climate change for agricultural markets and the cost of government policies and programs.
- The potential for agriculture to adapt to changing climate conditions.
- The potential within agriculture for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.
- The role of USDA farm programs under changing climate conditions.
- Drought resilience and risk management.
The USDA said the “Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment” finds that global average temperatures over the past decade (2012 to 2021) were close to 2 degrees F warmer than the preindustrial period (1850 to 1899).
“Global surface temperatures will continue to rise until CO2 emissions reach net zero, and surface temperatures are not expected to fall for centuries in the absence of net-negative emissions,” the report said.
Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. have risen by 2.5 degrees F and temperatures in Alaska by 4.2 degrees F since 1970, compared to a global temperature rise of around 1.7 F over the same period. This reflects a broader global pattern in which land is warming faster than the ocean, higher latitudes are warming faster than lower latitudes, and the Arctic is warming fastest of all, the report said.
The report also said that many eastern regions of the country are getting wetter. Average annual precipitation from 2002 to 2021 was 5% to 15% higher relative to the 1901 to 1960 average in the central and eastern U.S., a trend attributable to climate change.
Strong reductions in emissions of both carbon dioxide and non-CO2 greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and nitrous oxide) are required to limit human-induced global warming to specific levels, and globally, CO2 emissions are the largest contributor to climate change, the report said. However, the emissions profile for agriculture differs from that of the overall economy.
The Environmental Protection Agency estimated that agriculture accounted for 10.5% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. U.S. agriculture emitted an estimated 663.6 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2022: 46.6% as nitrous oxide, 41.7% as methane, and 11.6% as carbon dioxide, according to the EPA.
USDA’s publications that consider climate change and agricultural adaptation include:
- “Climate-Induced Yield Changes and TFP: How Much R&D Is Necessary To Maintain the Food Supply?”
- “Climate Change and Agricultural Risk Management Into the 21st Century” (Climate Change Projected To Increase Cost of the Federal Crop Insurance Program due to Greater Insured Value and Yield Variability Development, Adoption, and Management of Drought-Tolerant Corn in the United States.
- “Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production.”
The USDA’s publications that consider climate change mitigation include:
- “Trends, Insights, and Future Prospects for Production in Controlled Environment Agriculture and Agrivoltaics Systems.”
- “Common Ground for Agriculture and Solar Energy: Federal Funding Supports Research and Development in Agrivoltaics.”
- “Cover Crop Trends, Programs, and Practices in the United States.”
- “Resource Requirements of Food Demand in the United States.”
- “Tillage Intensity and Conservation Cropping in the United States.”
- “Dedicated Energy Crops and Competition for Agricultural Land.
