Annual volumes of Peruvian avocados exported to the U.S. have trended upward — from 20 million pounds in 2011-12 to a peak of 142 million in 2014-15, according to the Peruvian Avocado Commission.
That’s a 610% increase in the first four seasons.
However, the trend hasn’t been all upward. Volume in the two seasons that followed the peak year slipped — to 102 million pounds in 2015-16, and then to 69 million in 2016-17, according to the commission.
The U.S. market actually retracted by 5% last year, said Xavier Equihua, the commission’s president and CEO.
But things should be improving in 2018 and, perhaps, beyond, he said.
“I think we should be excited that for the first time in four years the category is growing,” he said.
Equihua noted that the U.S. market will move about 2.4 billion pounds of hass avocados from all sources in 2018, after having “been stuck” at around 2.1 billion for the last few years.
He was quick to add that demand for avocados has not shrunk in the U.S.
Peru expects to ship a record volume of avocados to the U.S. market this year — somewhere between 160 million and 170 million pounds, Equihua said.
A number of suppliers predict that Peru’s avocado shipments to the U.S. will continue to grow, long-term.
One thing I can tell you with certainty is the European market will grow as large as the U.S. eventually.
Equihua said there are reasons to agree with that assessment, but he stopped short of making any long-term forecasts.
“No one will be able to tell you that, and if they do, they’re just speculating,” he said.
Sales to other markets, such as Europe and China, may influence how much fruit goes to the U.S., he said.
“One thing I can tell you with certainty is the European market will grow as large as the U.S. eventually,” Equihua said.
“There’s more people in Europe with the same or greater economic buying power as the U.S., but the wild card is Asia.”
Of course, growing demand for avocados also will affect sales in all markets, Equihua said.
“Demand will continue to exceed supply,” he said.
The nutritional assets of avocados have much to do with its increased popularity worldwide, Equihua said.
“People are paying more and more attention to what they’re eating,” he said.
Suppliers say they’re optimistic about the long-term growth of avocado sales in the U.S., in part due to the fruit’s health benefits.
“The demand for avocados is likely to continue to increase,” said Kevin Leap, avocado category manager with Eden Prairie, Minn.-based Robinson Fresh.
The biggest alternative to support U.S. consumption growth in the next 10 years is changing from only-Mexico dependency into more from Peru and Colombia.
Peru has land available to expand and large amounts of water to grow more avocados, Leap said.
“With a likely increase in consumer demand, Peru will continue to be a key player to help meet that demand,” he said.
Mexico remains the dominant avocado supplier to the U.S. market, but Peru stands to increase its own presence, said Jose Antonio Gomez Bazan, avocado commission vice chairman.
“The biggest alternative to support U.S. consumption growth in the next 10 years is changing from only-Mexico dependency into more from Peru and Colombia,” he said. “Between both, you can achieve year-round supply.”
Peruvian avocado imports into the U.S. are expected to rise by 15% this year over last, and that type of growth could continue in the years to come, said Eric Crawford, president of Sunrise, Fla.-based Fresh Results LLC.
“If you consider that the hass avocados export (from Peru) has grown by 14% between 2012 and 2016, 27% in the last year and a 15% growth expected again this year, we can foresee there is still a huge volume to come,” he said.
