CHICAGO — At the U.S. Apple Association’s Outlook conference, Category Partners President and CEO Tom Barnes began his portion of a dual presentation by looking at the apple category as a whole, while co-presenter Julie DeJarnatt, vice president of marketing and brand strategy for Chelan Fresh, updated the industry on the “Eat More Apples” campaign.
Dried apples are the only apple product with a five-year compounded annual growth rate of 2%, though it is a small volume of 3.4 million pounds, Barnes says, while applesauce and apple juice declined.
When comparing other fresh produce categories, kiwifruit has shown an 11.6% volume annual growth in the last five years while apples have remained flat.
“The crazy thing is not only is the volume category flat, but so is the price,” Barnes says. “Over the last five years, apples as a whole, as a category, has not grown.”
He says the plateau has happened even as apples have become a year-round commodity.
“The fact that we aren’t growing volume and we’re not growing price says there’s something going on there, and it’s something that we need to look at, especially when we have other very mature fruit categories like bananas that are growing,” he says.
However, organic apples are a bright spot, Barnes says, with 1.5% CAGR in the last five years and almost 12% of total apple sales, while ranking behind organic blueberries, raspberries and blackberries.
“We’re at 11.9%,” he says. “We did decline just a little bit year over year from 2025, but organic still is continuing to be a big part of the overall apple category.”
Market Trends for Top Apple Varieties
In terms of specific varieties, NIQ data shows Cosmic Crisp has reached more than 70% distribution nationwide, “which is a pretty big feat when you think about how long it has actually been around compared to a lot of the different varieties,” Barnes says of the variety’s growth.
Rockit, SugarBee, Opal and Envy follow but have less distribution. Barnes also identified Pink Lady, SnapDragon, SweeTango, Honeycrisp and gala as varieties on the rise.
Barnes says that while varieties grow in shelf space, others have lost shelf space. Jazz has only 17% distribution, and red delicious has also declined, with distribution below 70%. Other declining varieties include braeburn, Autumn Glory, cortland and golden delicious.
Despite what the data reveals, Barnes says he still sees clear potential for the category.
“I still believe there’s a great story out there for apples, and I believe that growth can continue to happen,” he says. “But we need to come together, understand the consumer and then move forward.”
How Inflation Shapes Shopper Perceptions
Citing University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, Barnes says consumer confidence remains low. After reaching a bottom in July 2022, sentiment began rebounding in April 2026 before falling again due to gas price spikes driven by Middle East unrest.
“Consumer confidence is down, and it makes people a little worried,” he says. “We have to understand it because that is who we are selling to. I know we talk to the retailers and we tell them to put our products on the shelf, but the consumer is the end of the chain, and that’s who we need to be understanding in order to make sure that we’re successful.”
Barnes says Category Partners recently polled consumers about prices of goods, and 93% said fresh fruits and vegetables are more expensive than they were a year ago.
“We know categories will fluctuate, and commodities, and so some are actually down, some are not, but the consumer perceives that price is up and we have to understand that,” he says. “It doesn’t mean that we need to lower our prices necessarily, but we need to understand how we compare with other fruits and vegetables and where they’re priced at to make sure that we can look enticing on the shelf and be felt as an affordable option.”
Category Partners also examined online shopping trends, finding that consumers cited fresh produce as the No. 1 category they prefer to buy in-store. While apples compete in a crowded produce department, this in-store preference remains a major opportunity.
“One of our most important features is when the consumer gets to see that product,” Barnes says. “We need to make sure that we’re still focusing very heavily on our in-store presence and making sure that our products look really good.”
Health Benefits Drive Buying Decisions
Category Partners also collaborated with the “Eat More Apples” campaign to evaluate consumer behavior and perceptions. Notably, among consumers who indicated taking a GLP-1 medication, 46% reported eating more apples.
“The main purpose of the study was to understand what the consumers thought about the health benefits of apples and if we can influence that and help educate that consumer,” Barnes says.
Additionally, more than 46% of consumers reported a willingness to buy more fruit once they understood its health benefits, while more than 35% said understanding a fruit’s health benefits matters more than its price.
“It means that health is a really important factor to the decision-making of the consumer,” Barnes says.
When consumers were asked to identify a fruit based on specific health benefits — such as vitamin C, fiber, antioxidants, natural sugar, mental health benefits, etc. — apples were the top fruit identified in gut health and fiber (48% of consumers) and came in second to bananas for natural fruit and sugar (53%); only 30% of consumers attributed eating apples with weight loss.
Consumers in the survey reported apples being healthier than watermelon, pears and cherries, though apples trailed blueberries, avocados, pomegranate, strawberries and citrus.
“This is all about perception, and it’s all about education and what has been taught to the consumer and what is it that they [think] because of what they’ve been taught,” he says.
A Collective Campaign to Shift Perceptions
Following a look at the apple category and the data Category Partners provided, DeJarnatt says that while individual brand marketing is essential, “Eat More Apples” seeks to be a “megaphone big enough” to shift consumer perception as a unified, collective industry voice.
“We need a platform that creates more room for every brand and every region that produces apples to win,” she says.
DeJarnatt says while apples boast a high household-penetration rate (77%), frequency of consumption is dropping. Furthermore, while 72% of shoppers report buying produce for general health benefits, only 35% specifically buy apples for health reasons.
“Fiber is the biggest deal right now,” she says. “[Apples offer] insoluble fiber with the hydration, with the natural sugars. Nothing is better for GLP-1s. We covered all of the things that this big emerging trend needs. Nobody knows about it.”
DeJarnatt explains that this knowledge gap is where the “Eat More Apples” initiative called “Good to the Core” comes in. It is built around three core pillars: good for your body, good for your routine and good for your life.
“They’re going to see that apples are current,” she says. “We’re going to make it meaningful. We’re going to make it really easy for them to choose an apple over all the other options that they have today.”
The messaging will center on educating consumers on the specific, tangible health benefits of apples, positioning apples as an easy, friction-free daily snack choice and tapping into nostalgic memories, family traditions and the deep cultural connection Americans have with apples.
DeJarnatt emphasizes that driving categorywide demand requires consistent, omnichannel execution. To scale the campaign, funding structures have been established via 501(c)3 and 501(c)6 platforms, enabling supply chain partners — including packers, marketers and industry allies — to contribute. She estimates the campaign will require between $500,000 and $1 million for a successful launch.
She says she’s “looking broader across the industry to the people that are dependent on apples being successful in the long term and helping us get this message out that is going to support the industry as a whole.”
Along with unified retail signage, DeJarnatt plans to deploy digital marketing, social media campaigns and influencer partnerships.
“The biggest thing is consistency — having one message that [consumers] hear over and over and over again,” she says. “[And] not having a fragmented approach.”
