Customer transactions at major U.S. restaurant chains may have dipped by 10% the week ending July 5 compared to a year ago, but the decline was an improvement over the previous week’s 14%, drop, according to The NPD Group, a Chicago-based data analysis firm.
Quick-service restaurant chains fared best, as customer transaction declines improved by 4 points from the prior week’s decline of 13% over year-ago data.
Customer transactions at full-service restaurants were down 30% compared to a year ago and a 5-point decline from the prior week.
NPD’s data is based on chain-specific transactions and share trends for 72 quick-service, fast-casual, midscale and casual dining chains.
“We are entering a new phase of the restaurant industry evolution: the divergence of quick-service restaurants and full-service restaurants,” David Portalatin, NPD food industry adviser, said in a news release reporting the latest data.
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit in March, consumers were showing an increasing preference for off-premise restaurant meals, he said.
So far, the full-service restaurant segment has experienced transaction declines of 80% or worse during the pandemic in the U.S., Portalatin said, while QSR declines were roughly half as severe thanks to their drive-through windows, capacity for high-volume pick-up and ability to leverage digital apps and provide a contactless experience.
Meanwhile, the National Restaurant Association reported that the restaurant industry expanded payrolls for the second consecutive month in June during the gradual reopening process.
Eating and drinking places added 1.5 million jobs in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The June increase followed a similar gain in May, and represented a significant segment of the 7.5 million jobs added to the economy, Bruce Grindy, the association’s chief economist, wrote on the association’s website.
Grindy said that, although the two-month employment bounce of 3 million jobs was impressive, “it only marks the beginning of a long road to recovery for the restaurant industry.”
He said restaurants were hit harder than any other industry during the pandemic, and still have the longest climb back to pre-coronavirus employment levels.
The Northeast was hit the hardest by the coronavirus, he said, since more than 60% of workers lost their restaurant jobs.
The full-service segment lost more than 3.6 million jobs between February and April, and gained back nearly 1 million jobs in May, according to BLS numbers.
Staffing at quick-service and fast-casual establishments declined by more than 977,000 between February and April, with 364,000 of these jobs returning in May.
Among the major restaurant segments, only foodservice contractors continued to shed jobs in May, according to BLS.
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