Fresh produce continues to outperform much of the grocery store, but emerging shopper trends suggest the industry cannot rely on old habits to drive future growth, according to a recent Circana and FMI webinar, “Fresh Perspectives: Demystifying Demand in the Digital Age.”
While consumers remain under pressure from higher living costs and fuel prices, produce remains well positioned as shoppers continue to cook and eat at home.
“We are still seeing about 78% of meal making expected to be in the home,” says Jonna Parker, vice president of Fresh Foods Group for Circana. “Twenty-four percent said that they’re cooking more meals from scratch.”
That trend presents an opportunity for produce, she says.
“If the meal is expected to be at home because of gas prices, it’s an opportunity for produce — not just assume it’s a special-occasion-only behavior, and really focus on everyday meal making and how produce can deliver that value.”
Shopper Shifts
Produce’s role as an everyday staple remains one of the category’s greatest strengths. Parker notes that “18 of the 20 most frequent and widely bought perimeter foods are in produce,” adding that fruits and vegetables continue to drive store traffic and repeat purchases.
At the department level, produce is also benefiting from relatively modest inflation compared to other grocery categories.
“The reality is that produce, especially, is a tremendous value and is not seeing the rates of inflation as seen in other spaces yet,” Parker says.
According to Bailey Furtado, senior fresh foods industry analyst for Circana, the category posted healthy balanced growth over the latest 52-week period.
“We’re seeing both dollar and volume growth, which is critical,” Furtado says. “This tells us that growth isn’t just inflation-driven; it’s supported by real demand.”
However, more recent data show shoppers becoming increasingly selective.
“In the last four weeks, the story becomes more nuanced,” Furtado says. “Dollars are still growing across both the total department of produce and both fresh fruit and vegetables. The pounds are under pressure.”
She noted that fruit volume has recently declined faster than vegetable volume, suggesting consumers are purchasing less produce per trip or making more deliberate choices within the department.
Within vegetables, shoppers are gravitating toward staples that support meal preparation and stretch food budgets.
“Growth is concentrated in onions, tomatoes, cucumbers and potatoes,” Furtado says. “These are affordable, versatile and meal-building staples.”
Fruit purchases show a similar focus on value and versatility. While cherries, grapes, apples and avocados posted volume growth, berries declined in pounds sold.
“This indicates a trade-off dynamic,” Furtado says. “Consumers may be pulling back from higher-price, more perishable items like berries and shifting into fruits that are perceived as more versatile, longer lasting, higher value per purchase.”
Connecting With Consumers
The webinar also highlighted concerns about shopper retention and category engagement. Parker says recent data indicate produce is losing some buyers compared with a year ago.
“All of the fresh fruit aisle and all of the fresh veg aisle saw an erosion of dollar sales because people who bought in May of last year did not buy this year,” she says, adding, “This intentional shrinking of trips and baskets is going to continue to affect us.”
To combat that trend, speakers urged produce marketers to focus on attracting new shoppers and encouraging repeat purchases rather than relying solely on pricing promotions.
The industry also has significant opportunities with younger consumers, who are embracing cooking at home in greater numbers than many expected.
“Growing up in an era of inflation and affordability has had them lean into cooking and making meals from scratch,” Parker says. “Consumers who are in their 20s today actually are doing what our general merchandise friends call analog-type behaviors, and that includes cooking.”
Digital engagement represents another key avenue for growth. Circana’s social listening data shows strong consumer interest in fresh produce content.
“When it comes to produce, it’s 65% positive,” Parker says. “We see millions and millions of hits and interest talking about fresh produce online.”
She points to growing consumer interest in specialty items such as purple vegetables, fiber-rich foods and red kiwifruit, trends that are often driven by social media exposure.
“People crave healthy foods that are exciting and different and fun, and social delivers,” Parker says.
E-commerce also continues to gain momentum in produce. Parker notes that produce ranks second only to meat in digital adoption among fresh departments.
“Produce digital penetration has ramped up since 2024,” she says.
As consumers continue balancing affordability, convenience and health priorities, Parker emphasizes that produce suppliers and retailers must focus on versatility, meal solutions, digital engagement and shopper acquisition.
