The most recent Florida all orange crop forecast is down 35% from the 2023-24 finalized total of 808,000 tons, according to the USDA Economic Research Service’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report. If the March forecast for the 2024-25 crop is realized, it would be the smallest crop for the state in 95 years at 522,000 tons, the agency said.
ERS said the USDA National Agricultural Statistic Service reported that Florida’s combined early, midseason and navel orange production will fall 32% and valencia orange production will fall 38% compared to the season before.
The ERS report said Hurricane Milton, which hit prime citrus-producing counties, caused millions in dollars in damage to an industry already struggling from citrus greening disease, also known as huanglongbing.
With the Florida citrus crop expected to be low, the report said citrus import share for juice will reach 90% in the current season, with Brazil and Mexico supplying 95% of U.S. juice imports.
Florida’s oranges accounted for 49% of the oranges used in domestic orange juice production in the 2023-24 season.
Prices for fruit and tree nut growers were about 9% higher than January 2024 but 8% lower than January 2023. Higher prices for apples, strawberries and grapefruit in early 2024 attributed to some of that growth, the report said, with lower year-over-year volumes for almonds, walnuts and pistachios also placing upward pressure on prices.
Retail prices dipped to a three-year low in April 2024 due to a large apple harvest in 2023 that put downward pressure on retail prices, the report said. Banana prices also fell 1.3%, and in the first two months of 2025, USDA Agricultural Marketing Service shipment volumes of bananas were higher than the same period last year despite lower volumes from Guatemala, Costa Rica and Ecuador.
The report also highlighted a year-over-year increase in 2024 of domestic strawberry shipments from California, while Florida shipments were lower year-over-year in 2024 due to heavy rain, wind and hail in early March 2024.
Fresh strawberry exports increased by 20% in 2024 to 351.5 million pounds; those exports were valued at $573.3 million, which makes fresh strawberries the third-most valuable fresh fruit export behind apples and grapes and ahead of oranges and cherries, according to the ERS report. Canada is the top destination for fresh strawberries from the U.S.
ERS said California Strawberry Commission data show that strawberry acreage in the state is expected to increase in 2025, continuing an upward trend. Strawberry acreage in Florida is also expected to be higher in 2025, an increase of 13% according to the commission’s data.
While apple prices fell to a four-year low in April 2024, NASS data shows fresh apple prices up 20% from 2024 at $0.75 per pound, but that is still 19% lower than 2023, the report showed. Apple production increased in 2024 by 14% year over year due to weather.
Blueberry exports increased by 36% year over year in 2024 to 104 million pounds, the highest export volume on record and the first time the U.S. exported 100 million or more pounds, the report said. Fresh blueberry imports increased 22% for 684 million pounds, which surpassed 2022’s high.
