USDA predicts slow growth for U.S. vegetable production

Limited by continued competition from imports, U.S. production of vegetable and pulse crops is projected to grow only by 4% between 2022 and 2033, the USDA said in its long-term outlook report.

“This primarily reflects technical measurement issues and rising import competition,” the USDA said. Technical issues largely center on the rapid growth of the protected culture subsector (mostly greenhouses and urban vertical farms) that is slowly replacing field-grown production for several major fresh vegetables, the agency said.

With some exceptions,  the protected culture subsector still not well represented in traditional USDA data collection programs that have recorded declining field-grown area and production for some crops, the agency said.

In recent years import volumes across many fresh and processed vegetables rose rapidly, including imports of organic foods produced in the Southern hemisphere. The USDA said its projections assume a continuation of import growth.

Fresh-market vegetable production share is projected to decline from 32% in 2022 to 30% of total vegetable production through 2033 as imports are projected to largely fill stronger demand through 2033, the USDA said.

“Despite increasing production of higher-priced vegetables such as romaine lettuce, broccoli, and organic vegetables, the value of fresh-market vegetable production, including melons, is projected to decrease by 11% between 2022–33 as price pressure continues from strong import growth,” the USDA said.

The agency said steady growth is projected in romaine and field-grown leaf production while iceberg output will decline.

Field-grown iceberg lettuce share is expected to be limited by rising protected culture (greenhouse and other similar systems) output and rising popularity of romaine lettuce, the USDA said.

Production of onions is expected to remain steady, the USDA said, while projected potato production is expected to grow 8% over the next decade; potato production value is expected to rise 3% over the 2022-33 baseline, the agency said.

Planted potato acres are forecast to decrease slightly in 2024, but total planted acres in the top 13 potato-producing states are forecast to remain flat through 2033, according to USDA economists.

“The long-term potato forecast assumes average weather and adequate water supplies, an upward yield trend, and steady demand in the U.S. and abroad for processed potatoes,” the USDA said in its report.

Commercial domestic mushroom production is forecast to decline slightly throughout the next 10 years, the USDA said.