End-of-year retail performance expected similar to November

The COVID-19 pandemic reduced big gatherings for the Thanksgiving holiday, but retail produce sales data showed fresh produce continued to show strong gains compared with year-ago levels.

More of the same is expected for Christmas and end-of-year celebrations, retail analysts say.

The November Produce Market Watch report from the Produce Marketing Association revealed that the 8.2% gain for fresh produce at retail during November, compared with year-ago levels, was slightly higher than the 7.5% gain reported in October, according to Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics.

Year-to-date retail fresh produce sales gains through November were up 10% versus the same time period in 2019, she said in the report.

“Retail produce sales delivered a strong performance in November,” Joe Watson, vice president of membership and engagement for the Produce Marketing Association, said in the report. “The very different Thanksgiving celebrations benefited retail, but ultimately balance between retail and foodservice is what benefits our industry as a whole. The end-of-year celebrations are likely to look equally different and looking back at the lessons from Thanksgiving may help streamline operations for the weeks to come. It is likely we will see highly elevated online orders, earlier shopping and different choices to accommodate for the smaller gatherings.”

During the month of November, the report said retail sales for all food-and-beverage-related items (total edibles) increased 9.3%, which was up from the 8.6% gain during the month of October.

As has been the case throughout the pandemic, frozen fruits and vegetables had the highest percentage sales increase in November. At 15.6%, the frozen fruit and vegetable sales increase was close to double the percentage gain for fresh produce (8.2%).

Still, fresh produce sales in November accounted for 76% of all retail fruit and vegetable sales, off from the 84% average in all of 2019, but not much changed from 76.6% in November 2019. Frozen fruit and vegetable sales accounted for 8.5% of all fruit and vegetable sales in November, up slightly from 8% in November 2019.

The report said fresh produce generated $4.9 billion in sales during the November weeks, up $380 million compared with the same time period in 2019. That increase was accounted for with $107 million in additional fruit sales and $273 million in additional vegetable sales, according to the report.

Dollar gains

For fresh produce items, the top ten items showing the biggest dollar gains from Nov. 8 to Nov. 29, compared with a year ago, were:

• Berries: +$58 million, 13.6% to $485 million;
• Tomatoes: +$40.5 million, 17.7% $270 million;
• Salad kits/lettuce: +$35.6 million, 19.7% to $393 million;
• Peppers: +$28.2 million, 18.7% to $179 million;
• Potatoes: +$26.8 million, 9.8% to $301 million;
• Melons: +$18.5 million, 21.4% to $105 million;
• Mandarins: +$16.3 million, 14.3% to $130 million;
• Cucumbers: +$14.9 million, 21% to $86 million;
• Onions: +$12.8 million, 6.8% to $203 million; and
• Mushrooms: +$11.9 million, 12.5% to $107 million.

“The November Top 10 in absolute dollar gains reflects some familiar faces, led by berries, tomatoes and lettuce,” Watson said in the report.

“Mandarins make an appearance in the top 10 instead of oranges as people’s Vitamin C immune-boosting fruit of choice, with a 14.3% increase versus year ago, reflecting an additional $16.3 million in sales. Cucumbers and mushrooms are the smallest of the categories making it into the top 10, with mushrooms having been a retail powerhouse since March.”

Subdued Christmas

Looking ahead, the report said 44% of Americans are worried that the holiday celebrations will cause a spike in COVID cases and over one-third are not looking forward to the holiday season as much as usual because their celebrations will be curtailed.

Only one in four plan to celebrate with others outside their household, about half the rate of last year, the report said. One in three consumers expect to spend less on groceries for the December holidays this year, mostly because they will be hosting fewer/no guests this year or cutting back to save money, the report said.