For decades, processing tomato growers have measured success by a single primary benchmark: yield per acre. But as climate shifts force a drier reality across key growing regions worldwide, the math behind vegetable production is fundamentally changing.
“Climate research projects California could be 15% to 35% drier by 2100, with major snowpack losses. Similar arid, Mediterranean conditions affect processing tomato regions in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Turkey,” says Taylor Anderson, tomato development breeder for Bayer Crop Science. “That shifts the target from yield per acre to yield per acre-inch of water.”
Over the next decade, Anderson anticipates drought-stability data becoming a standard part of variety advancement.
“I also expect genetics, irrigation management and biologics to be packaged together and validation to move from research plots to grower fields,” he says. “Accurate, real-time crop sensing will matter more and more. Less water doesn’t have to mean less tomatoes, but as an industry we will naturally become more prescriptive with the management as the economics and environmental limitations place constraints on us over the next decades.”
This paradigm shift was front and center at Seminis Vegetable Seeds’ 2026 Woodland Experience in August. Held at Bayer’s Research & Development site in Woodland, Calif., the event brought together growers, industry stakeholders and technical experts for an immersive field tour offering a rare, behind-the-scenes look at how seed breeding and emerging agricultural technologies are evolving to support fruit and vegetable production and innovation across crops from cucurbits and melons to onions and peppers.
Among the innovation-focused stops along the tour was the Processing Tomato Water Deficit Trial, exploring ways to help manage water more efficiently within the processing tomato segment.
Balancing Genetics, Vigor and Processing Quality
To achieve this shift toward water efficiency, Bayer’s breeding team is focusing on genetic traits and plant architecture that maintain productivity under deficit irrigation. The fundamental objective remains unchanged — maximizing yield per unit of applied water — without sacrificing key tomato attributes.
“We select for varieties that show neutral or positive yield characteristics under reduced water applications,” Anderson explains. “We also watch processing quality (Brix, color, viscosity) to make sure water savings don’t cost quality.”
Beyond fruit quality, the physical vigor of the plant itself plays a pivotal role in enduring reduced water conditions. Breeders are closely examining root and canopy traits to find the right equilibrium for commercial viability.
“On the plant side, more vigorous types — plant and root system — have shown to hold up better under drought, and we’re exploring how to maximize that without the varieties going vegetative,” says Anderson, noting that Bayer’s internal trials are already yielding promising results. “In our internal trials, our newest experimental selections have demonstrated vigorous canopies chosen with water-stress resilience in mind.”
Revelations in Water Deficits
To put these genetic principles to the test, Bayer conducted controlled regulated deficit irrigation, or RDI, trials in Woodland from 2022 to 2025, benchmarking a full-water control against three distinct deficit schedules.
Researchers evaluated a seasonlong 80% regime (a 20% water reduction), a more aggressive 60% regime, full water until fruit set followed by 50% through harvest, and a combination treatment. Applied water was measured precisely via flow meters, while harvest data captured both final yields and key processing chemistry metrics.
“Across three years, yield response was flat or positive for several varieties under RDI,” Anderson notes. “The steady approximately 80% regime was the best-balanced, highest-yielding treatment overall, with statistical significance.”
The findings showed that reducing water didn’t mean compromising on quality; in fact, the opposite occurred.
“Quality generally improved under deficit: Lab Brix rose as stress increased, color got redder and juice viscosity got thicker, while pH was unaffected,” he says.
Anderson adds that drought-tolerant vigorous varieties also tend to handle other biotic and abiotic factors better than standard varieties.
Integrating Ag-Tech for Precise Soil Monitoring
Beyond genetic selection, modern water management relies heavily on precise digital tools to capture real-time crop dynamics. Throughout the trial, water applications were tracked using flow meters, while final yields were measured using small-plot mechanical harvesters and block-level truck scales. To gain deeper visibility underground, researchers turned to digital monitoring.
“Precise water accounting has been the foundation of the trial,” Anderson explains. “We tested soil moisture sensors at various points in the soil profile to help define the water availability zones and study whether varieties showing drought tolerance are pulling water from different soil depths.”
While initial sensor readings with limited probes proved relatively noisy, the team expanded its monitoring capabilities by partnering with ag-tech specialists like Sentek to enhance probe density and data clarity.
“These readings were relatively noisy with only a few probes, so we have expanded this effort for better real-time sensing with additional probes, and showcasing ag-tech partners like Sentek at Woodland reflects that direction,” says Anderson.
Commercial Availability and Next-Gen Pipeline
For processing tomato growers looking to implement these resilient genetics, some solutions are already available today.
“Several varieties in this work are already on the market. That includes some of the most stable performers under deficit and SVTM9016, which yielded well even under drought conditions,” Anderson says. “Newer experimental selections, such as vigorous types bred for stress resilience, are moving through our standard pipeline and are planned to be on the market in the next two to three years.”
However, before any variety receives a commercial green light or water-use recommendation, it must pass rigorous agronomic benchmarks.
“Drought data adds to the usual advancement benchmarks rather than replacing them, and there can be no trade-offs to key agronomic performance traits: e.g., marketable yield, color, Brix and viscosity, field holding, maturity and disease resistance,” Anderson says. “Before we make any variety-specific water recommendation, we want to confirm small-plot results at grower scale, across more locations and years.”
Fresh Market Realities: Balancing Water Efficiency With Retail Quality
While processing tomato research is forging ahead under water deficit strategies, the fresh market sector faces a vastly different set of commercial priorities and operational realities. According to Bayer fresh tomato breeders Chad Jorgensen (open-field fresh market tomatoes) and Alejandro Castro Aviles (protected-culture fresh market tomatoes), the desire for increased yield remains a universal goal for both industries, but applying regulated deficit irrigation to fresh market crops is far less straightforward.
Because fresh market consumers “shop with their eyes first,” breeders must ensure that traits critical to retail appeal — such as firmness, skin integrity, postharvest shelf life, visual quality and flavor profiles — are not compromised before adopting water reduction strategies, requiring dedicated trials in fresh market fields.
The applicability of water-deficit trial data also varies significantly depending on the production system. Jorgensen says that processing tomato water-efficiency insights are most relevant to determinate fresh market varieties, where plant vigor, canopy cover and harvest scheduling share similar management structures.
However, for protected culture operations, drought stress is rarely a focus since crops are grown under protective structures, rely on precise drip irrigation from wells or ponds and are sheltered from unpredictable rainfall. Instead, protected culture growers deal with different water quality hurdles, such as high-salinity irrigation water triggering blossom end rot, or requiring varieties that can handle extra irrigation just before harvest without cracking.
Ultimately, the fresh tomato industry can look to these processing trials as a framework for testing physiological responses to water stress, but adoption will depend on grower demand and fresh-market-specific testing.
