New normal is ever elusive
As time goes by, the “new normal” we have been waiting for looks like it will bear less and less of a resemblance to the old normal.
While foodservice sales were trending above grocery at the beginning of 2020, below is a chart from the USDA that shows that post-pandemic sales of food at home (grocery stores) continued to far outperform sales of food away from home through the end of 2020.
With the vaccine expected to be widely accessible later this year, the restaurant business could rally strongly in the third and fourth quarters. Even so, when I recently talked with Bruce Peterson, president of Peterson Insights, he said retailers will have another strong year in 2021 but must brace for a more challenging environment in 2022.
It will be a day to celebrate for the country, save for grocers, when sales numbers for restaurants again surpass food bought at grocery stores. That may be some time yet.
Check out these charts on fresh produce trade, in terms of value per metric tons and overall volume trends for imports and exports.
In a story headlined, “Millions of jobs probably aren’t coming back, even after the pandemic ends,” the Seattle Times noted that Microsoft founder Bill Gates predicted in November that half of business travel and 30% of “days in the office” would go away forever.
While it startled some at the time, the story said the prediction by Gates doesn’t seem that implausible today. The author noted a study coming out from the McKinsey Global Institute says that 20% of business travel won’t come back and about 20% of workers could end up working from home indefinitely.
Importantly, those types of dramatic changes in how people “go to work” will translate to fewer jobs at hotels, restaurants, et cetera. This means millions of Americans may have to be trained for a different career.
With the increased investments in robotics, jobs will be lost to automation throughout the economy, including agriculture.
What will all these economic disruptions mean for how the industry comes together?
Despite the tremendous appetite for in-person events, will trade shows take on dramatically less importance in the months and years ahead?
With less travel to growing regions and shows, how will buyers educate themselves on the produce they buy?
How can shoppers know what a white-flesh peach is without sampling and demos, and exposure at the stores? How will “personal shoppers” fulfilling an e-commerce order know how to select an heirloom tomato?
All the people who have joined the industry since last March don’t know what it is like to attend a Fresh Summit. How can buyers and suppliers still connect in a meaningful way? Those questions and many more remain for the “new normal.”
Here are a couple of links worth noting today...
Earther.gizmodo.com had a story on a new report that said the freezer aisle in the grocery store “could also be an even bigger source of pollution than we thought.”
Peru’s asparagus shipments to the U.S. faltered by 10% in 2020, but a report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service said the dip was only temporary.
The European Commission is trying big to promote healthier eating, the USDA reports.
Among the action items promised, the European Commission will also propose a revision of the EU school fruit, vegetables and milk scheme in 2023 to make healthy products more available to children and improve their understanding of the benefits of healthy food.
Front-of-pack nutrition labeling also will be mandated, according to the report.
What’s more, the Commission will review the EU promotion policy for agricultural products “with a view to enhancing its contribution to sustainable production and consumption, and in line with the shift to a more plant-based diet, with less red and processed meat and other foods linked to cancer risks and more fruit and vegetables.
