U.S. agricultural imports have continued to rise and are forecast to post a record $200 billion in 2024 before slowing, the USDA said in its long-term trade projection.
This projection is up from the previous record of $195.4 billion in 2023, with recent growth largely driven by strong imports of the combined livestock, dairy and poultry category; processed grain products; sugar and tropical products; and horticultural products (especially fresh fruits and vegetables), the USDA said.
The value of U.S. agricultural imports is projected to increase by an average annual rate of 0.8% from 2024 to 2033. A downturn in imports, which lags exports by two years, is projected to start in 2025, according to the USDA.
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“The downturn is expected to be comparatively mild, falling from the high of $200 billion in 2024 to a low of $193.1 billion in 2027,” the USDA said. “Following this downturn, moderate growth is expected to resume and imports end at $211.9 billion in 2033.”
The largest source of U.S. imports is horticultural products, comprising roughly half of the total and growing an average of 1.4% over the forecast period. Horticultural products are projected to decline moderately from a high of $98.4 billion in 2024, to a low of $95.8 billion in 2026 before rising again to $111.5 billion in 2033, according to the USDA.
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Within the broad horticultural products group, fresh fruits and vegetables imports were at $30.5 billion in 2023 and are forecast to grow at a relatively strong annual rate of 2.1% over the decade, the USDA said.
“This growth is due to slowing domestic fruit and vegetable production growth and increasingly competitive imports,” the USDA said. “Key import commodities include avocados, berries, and citrus from countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Peru,” the USDA said.
Other major horticultural products such as wine and beer, while strong through 2023, are expected to slow on declining long-term demand.
