Report: Fruit and nut production to show mixed trends
While noncitrus fruit production is predicted to remain relatively stable for the next decade, citrus output will fluctuate and nut production is projected to grow, the USDA says in its long-term outlook report.
The USDA said total U.S. fruit and tree nut production volume is expected to exceed 51 billion pounds in 2033. The farm value of fruit and tree nuts will rise to $33.8 billion by 2033, up from $26.6 billion in 2023, according to the agency.
Grapes, strawberries and apples represented 70% of noncitrus fruit farm value in 2022, the USDA said.
“During the 2022-33 period, the share of fruit farm value for these top noncitrus commodities is expected to increase slightly while stone fruit acreage in some states is transitioned to other crops,” the report said. Production volume for noncitrus commodities is expected to be relatively flat over the next decade, as plantings of higher-yielding varieties offset a slight decline in noncitrus acreage.
U.S. citrus (oranges, grapefruit, lemons and tangerines) production levels are projected to continue their long-term decline through the middle of the decade-long projection period before stabilizing, the USDA said.
“This trend is attributable to declining orange and grapefruit production alongside increasing production of lemons and tangerines,” the USDA said. “California is expected to remain the production leader of fresh oranges, grapefruit, tangerines, and lemons but is expected to see mild reductions to the volume of its grapefruit and orange crops, as they lose market share to other citrus and noncitrus fruits.”
Meanwhile, the USDA said production in California of lemons and tangerines (a group that includes easy-peel mandarins) is expected to increase throughout the projection period.
On the other hand, Florida's production of oranges, grapefruits and tangerines is expected to continue its decades-long decline as citrus groves are converted to other uses. Similar production and acreage changes are expected for orange and grapefruit orchards in Texas and lemon orchards in Arizona, which account for a relatively small share of combined U.S. citrus production, according to the USDA.
The total value of citrus production in the U.S. is projected to increase by 25% during the 2022-33 projection period due to higher prices.
For tree nuts, the USDA said low output prices and high-input prices are expected to shrink tree nut producers’ margins, causing small decreases in bearing acres for almonds and walnuts.
“Over the entire projection period, population increases are expected to fuel global demand for tree nuts, putting upward pressure on prices and pushing total bearing acreage and production higher,” the USDA said. “From 2022 to 2033, aggregate tree nut production (almond, walnut, hazelnut, pecan, pistachio, and macadamia nut) is expected to increase by approximately 17%, from 7 billion pounds in 2022 to 8.1 billion pounds in 2033. The value of tree nut production is expected to increase during the baseline period to $9.2 billion by 2033 but remain below total tree nut values recorded in 2021, the USDA said.
The USDA projections assume export demand gradually increases and average yields for most nuts remain flat or slightly lower during the baseline period.
