Despite challenges, almond crop anticipated to weigh in above 2022

Capitalizing on late sunsets and the waning summer days before the weather tips towards fall, California almond farmers have kicked off the 2023 season this August expecting a slightly larger crop this year, compared to 2022.

The forecasted almond crop is forecasted to weigh in at 2.6 billion almond meat pounds, up 1% from last year’s 2.57 billion pounds. This improved outlook is delivered despite the odds and thanks to an anticipated larger nut size, according to the USDA's recent "2023 California Almond Objective Measurement Report."

The almond may be tiny, but its sway is mighty when you consider that it’s California’s most valuable export crop. The Golden State produces 80% of the world's almonds and 100% of the U.S. commercial supply, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture.

Improved expectations

Earlier predictions from the USDA this spring from were lower in large part due to the weather and pollination challenges.

“Record level rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions hindered bee pollination activity in orchards across the state. Cooler than normal temperatures continued through early summer and delayed the maturity of the crop,” the report said.

The extra heft of each almond will offset what the USDA forecasts to be reduced yields per acre this season. The agency expects almonds per acre will clock in at 20 pounds less than 2022, making it the lowest yields per acre since 2009.

What’s more, the forecast for the average nut set per almond tree is 3,953, down 3% from the previous year, according to the report.

Recent challenges

“Almond farmers have faced a series of challenges in recent years, and this wet, cool winter and spring created different obstacles after three years of drought. Yet the forecast for a larger crop shows the resiliency of California almond orchards,” Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California, said in a news release.

Almond farmers have worked hard while dealing with higher production and financing costs along with an almond bloom with highly compromised bee flight hours, Waycott said.

Related news: California almond acreage shrinks for first time in 25 years

The wet winter did provide a silver lining for California almond farmers in what is typically a water-parched state.

“[Growers] are very thankful, however, for the abundant rain and snow which vastly improved the water situation, at least for now, and for shipping logistics that continue to improve,” Waycott said. “The perseverance of California’s almond farmers is admirable as is their commitment to meet future growth in global demand with high quality California almonds.”