Early Idaho potato crop outlook signals more promotion opportunities
The early numbers speak to a larger potato crop in Idaho for the 2023-24 season, and that means more affordable potatoes and greater promotion opportunities for retailers.
In June, the USDA estimated that 330,000 potato acres are planted in Idaho, up 12% from the previous year. The USDA said the harvested area in Idaho, at 329,500 acres, is also up 12% from the previous year.
The expanded potato area in Idaho contributed to expanded acreage in the U.S. in 2023, the USDA said.
While Oregon potato acreage was estimated at off 7%, Washington potato acreage, at 160,000 acres, was estimated up 3%, the USDA said.
Nationally, the area planted to potatoes is estimated at 949,000 acres, up 5% from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 941,900, also up 5% from 2022.
There was no official crop estimate for Idaho potato production as of Oct. 10, but shipment figures indicated ample Idaho potato supply.
Related: From dirt to dinner — Foodservice experts dive into Idaho potatoes
Idaho weekly potato truck shipments for the week of Sept. 24-30 were 1,089 (50,000-pound) truckloads, up 4% from the same week a year ago.
Season-to-date truck shipments of Idaho potatoes through Sept. 30 were 7,494 truckloads, up 12% from 6,695 truckloads at the same time a year ago. Total Idaho potato truckload shipments in the 2022-23 season were 55,903 truckloads, the USDA said.
Idaho accounted for about 36% of all fresh potato shipments for the week of Sept. 24-30, up from 33% the same week a year ago.
With bigger expected crop volumes, prices have been declining for Idaho potatoes in the late summer and early fall.
According to the USDA’s website, the average per-carton price for Idaho potatoes declined from a peak of $23.29 in early June to $20.46 on Aug. 12.
Declines were more dramatic in September, with the average per carton price in Idaho dropping to $13.69 on Sept. 2 to $10.15 on Sept. 30 and then to $10.02 on Oct. 7.
Strong promotion outlook
Growers are pleased with the quality and abundance of the Idaho potato crop, said Ross Johnson, vice president of retail and international for the Idaho Potato Commission, Eagle, Idaho.
“We have had really good weather, the perfect growing season and the perfect harvest season,” he said. “We couldn’t have asked for a better scenario for this year.”
Johnson said retailers will have great promotion opportunities this year.
In the 2022-23 marketing season, Idaho potato shippers dealt with a shorter supply and higher prices, in part because frozen and dehydrated processors were trying to buy up fresh potatoes for their processing needs. Due to that shortness of supply, retailers could not promote as much as they have in the past. Promotional opportunities will improve for the 2023-24 season, Johnson said.
“One of the things that we've really been focusing on with retailers is that we have not had this kind of an opportunity to promote in the last three years,” he said.
Federal student loan payments are expected to begin again in 2024 for millions of consumers after being paused since the start of the pandemic in 2020 — and consumers may be looking for ways to save money in their grocery budget, Johnson said.
“A lot of people are really going to be learning again how to save money, and they are going to be looking at what items in the store can help [them] save money," he said.
Related: Another good year due for Red River Valley potatoes
Retailers can capitalize on the value that potatoes give consumers, Johnson said. For example, promoting 10-pound bags of potatoes over the holidays may be a good strategy.
“We’ve really seen that 10-pound bags have kind of taken a backseat to 5-pound bags being the most popular size,” he said. “But with the longevity that potatoes have in your home, potatoes really will last a while, and there's a lot of different things that you can do with them.”
Russets are still the category leader for retailers, despite the popularity of yellow/gold potatoes and red potatoes.
“Russets are still the category leader; the opportunity to bring consumers into your store is through ads on russet potatoes, because that’s what resonates with consumers," Johnson said.
Idaho suppliers can also provide an ample volume of yellow potatoes, he said.
“A lot of people don't realize that Idaho is actually the No. 1 volume state for yellow potatoes,” Johnson said.
Looking ahead, Johnson said the Idaho Potato Commission has enhanced its Potato Lovers Month merchandising contest, which launches in February.
He said the commission will increase the number of grand prize winners in the contest this year from one to three. The grand prize winner is selected randomly from each of the commission’s retail representatives’ territories.
“It is a random drawing, which makes it fun for everybody,” Johnson said. Winners will receive a Traeger Grill and other grill accessories, he added.
Learn: More about potatoes from PMG
Export strength
Johnson said Idaho suppliers can ship into all of Mexico, and sales have been growing. The entire Mexican market opened to U.S. fresh potato exports May 2022.
“We have got a full marketing program running in-country, where we're trying to communicate with consumers on the difference between an Idaho potato and a local Mexican-grown potato,” he said. “We've seen great traction with that, and retailers and chefs alike have really responded positively to the Idaho potato.”
Johnson said Idaho potato shippers expect to see volume to Mexico increasing.
“We really do have a cost advantage because of how sophisticated our growing and harvesting practices are here in Idaho, compared to what it is locally grown in Mexico,” he said, noting that Idaho also delivers high-quality potatoes to the Mexican market.
