In a new five-year report, Roland Fumasi, head of RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness North America, says almond prices have improved in the past 18 months for California growers. He says this good news continues as he sees prices going even higher in the next five years.
He says, though, that progress is not linear. He sees higher carry-in, the number of almonds from the previous season coming into the next season, will challenge price potentials for the next two seasons. He sees an overall production decline for the 2026-27 crop year.
“Yield improvements and slower-than-historic demand growth will cause carry-in to rise and will keep a ceiling on price potential in 2026-27 and 2027-28,” Fumasi writes in his report.
Fumasi says he projects California almond yields to peak in 2027 and slowly decline.
“Bearing acreage may have peaked in 2025, but it will most likely peak even higher in 2026,” he writes. “However, any further increase in total bearing acres will be marginal.”
He says as growers remove aging trees and reduce overall bearing acres, the overall supply of almonds will tighten. This, he says, will lessen carry-in and coupled with a stabilized demand growth will help grower prices increase again.
To view and download the entire report at RaboBank.com.
