Retail produce sales growth slows amid economic pressure

Dollar sales of fresh produce at retail remained higher than usual at the end of July, though growth was lower than in previous weeks.

Sales totaled $1.34 billion the week ending Aug. 2, an 8.4% increase compared to the same week in 2019, according to IRI. Growth had been 11-12% in the previous three weeks. Vegetable sales for the week ending Aug. 2 were up 13% from last year, while fruit sales were up 4.4%.

“Whether it was the lack of trips, the influence of the last week of the month, the uncertainty surrounding the extension of unemployment benefits, the impact of the East Coast hurricane, or a combination of all the above, the sales performance across departments was a bit lower this week,” Jonna Parker, team lead for fresh for IRI, said in a news release. “I expect the coming weeks to be very telling for what the rest of the year may hold in terms of everyday demand.

“Back-to-school season is around the corner for several states, and our weekly survey found that half of parents with children ages 6 to 12 are now expecting their children to partake in virtual education (50%), with an additional 15% expecting mixed virtual and in-person education,” Parker said. “Only 19% of parents expect their younger kids to go back face-to-face. Parents of teenagers expect 24% to go back in person, with 42% expecting virtual education only and 19% a mixed virtual and in-person system. This will once more completely change year-over-year trending, as many more meal occasions for these students will remain at-home.”

In the fruit category, berries ($130 million), melons ($93 million) and cherries ($65 million) ranked as the top three in weekly sales. Cherries, tangerines and pineapples were the only top 10 fruit items with double-digit growth compared to the same time last year.

“One important reason why fruit sales are falling behind vegetables each week is that some of the largest categories are not gaining aggressively or even losing ground,” Joe Watson, vice president of membership and engagement for the Produce Marketing Association, said in the release. “In other cases, sales are going up against a very high 2019 bar. For instance, with melon sales in their high season, gains were just 1.2% versus year ago, but sales actually increased versus the week prior.

“Lastly, dollar gains and losses are heavily impacted by deflation and inflation in the current marketplace,” Watson said.

In the vegetable category, lettuce ($163 million), tomatoes ($77 million) and potatoes ($60 million) enjoyed the top spots in dollar sales. Mushrooms, corn and peppers all saw year-over-year dollar sales growth in excess of 20%.

“While in fruit sales gains were a mix of double-digit, single-digit and negative growth, all top 10 vegetables increased in dollar sales versus year ago, and seven in 10 did so with double-digit gains,” Watson said in the release.